What if China housing-led deflation exports disinflation to global goods?
A deepening property bust drags Chinese demand and prices into outright deflation, and excess industrial capacity exports cheap goods worldwide, lowering global goods inflation while signaling weak China demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A deepening property bust drags Chinese demand and prices into outright deflation, and excess industrial capacity exports cheap goods worldwide, lowering global goods inflation while signaling weak China demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -6.16–+1.52% · other way +6.45% (n=10) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.25–+0.39% · other way -0.11% (n=10) |
| 3 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.27–+0.52% · other way -5.21% (n=5) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.54–+0.34% · other way -2.27% (n=5) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -7.01–+3.2% · other way -8.1% (n=5) |
| 6 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.85–+0.15% · other way -0.65% (n=9) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -10.02–+2.38% · other way +20.5% (n=11) |
| 9 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.27–+-0.0% · other way -0.24% (n=9) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.35–+1.31% · other way -1.22% (n=10) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -9.33–+2.52% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 12 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.46–+0.05% · other way -1.23% (n=10) |
| 13 | Palladium XPDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.07–+0.64% · other way +0.66% (n=10) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -8.78–+2.85% · other way +0.68% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 30 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.0% · 5d -8.1% | 67% | 18 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.2% | 63% | 30 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -2.3% | 62% | 32 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.2% | 62% | 26 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.7% · 5d -16.2% | 62% | 16 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -4bp | 59% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -3.0% | 60% | 25 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.2% | 60% | 30 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 60% | 30 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.6% | 60% | 30 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -5.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 30 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -3.8% | 60% | 25 | 0.16 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.0% | 60% | 30 | 0.16 | · |