What if China housing-led deflation exports disinflation to global goods?
A deepening property bust drags Chinese demand and prices into outright deflation, and excess industrial capacity exports cheap goods worldwide, lowering global goods inflation while signaling weak China demand.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A deepening property bust drags Chinese demand and prices into outright deflation, and excess industrial capacity exports cheap goods worldwide, lowering global goods inflation while signaling weak China demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.