What if China land-revenue collapse forces austerity and growth downgrade?
A structural drop in local-government land-sale income forces fiscal retrenchment and public-investment cuts, lowering China's growth trajectory; the fiscal drag weighs on global industrial demand and commodity exporters.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A structural drop in local-government land-sale income forces fiscal retrenchment and public-investment cuts, lowering China's growth trajectory; the fiscal drag weighs on global industrial demand and commodity exporters. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Global growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.