What if China suffers a domestic Lehman moment from a major institutional failure?
A disorderly failure of a systemically important Chinese financial institution or developer overwhelms the implicit-guarantee framework, freezing interbank markets in a domestic Lehman-style event.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A disorderly failure of a systemically important Chinese financial institution or developer overwhelms the implicit-guarantee framework, freezing interbank markets in a domestic Lehman-style event. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.92–+0.54% · other way +25.2% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.9% hist -19.91–+4.44% · other way -2.51% (n=11) |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -8.51–+2.54% · other way +3.69% (n=11) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.41–-0.17% · other way +0.28% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -5.68–+1.55% · other way +5.1% (n=11) |
| 7 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.0–-0.16% · other way -0.24% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.07–+1.34% · other way -3.79% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.53–+0.19% · other way -0.09% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.64–-0.06% · other way +0.44% (n=12) |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.98–-0.03% · other way -0.19% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.51–+2.57% · other way +23.7% (n=11) |
| 13 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.75–+0.65% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 14 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.93–+0.39% · other way +1.57% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -16.8% · 5d -17.3% | 81% | 15 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 67% | 37 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -7.9% | 66% | 17 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.0% | 66% | 35 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.3% | 61% | 37 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.3% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.6% | 60% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.7% | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -4.3% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.8% | 61% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.1% | 58% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -4.0% | 58% | 21 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |