What if China-pharma PD-1/ADC innovation reshapes oncology competition?
Low-cost, high-quality Chinese oncology assets win global licensing and compete on price, pressuring Western pricing while rewarding deal-active partners.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Low-cost, high-quality Chinese oncology assets win global licensing and compete on price, pressuring Western pricing while rewarding deal-active partners. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Biotech breakthrough ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -6.88–+3.66% |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.31–+12.0% |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.48–+2.4% |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.09–+4.77% |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.07–+0.12% |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.3–+2.3% |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.32–+0.68% |
| 9 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -4.62–+1.19% |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.18–+0.12% |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.8–+1.5% |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.02–+0.91% |
| 13 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.59–+0.95% |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.44–+3.01% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 23 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -2.2% | 71% | 18 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.0% · 5d -9.4% | 71% | 13 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 67% | 21 | 0.29 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 20 | 0.21 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 20 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.6% | 60% | 20 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.5% · 5d -4.8% ↺ fades | 58% | 18 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 18 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -8.0% | 56% | 15 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +3bp | 56% | 21 | 0.09 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.3% | 55% | 19 | 0.07 | · |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 54% | 20 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | +-0.0% · 5d +1.2% ↺ fades | 40% | 21 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -5.1% ↺ fades | 50% | 21 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |