Trade tension
Every scenario in which trade tension is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.
551 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.
58%▲ 1–3 years
What if the EU's carbon border tax took full effect?
54%▼ 3–10 years
What if West African free-trade zone deepens regional growth?
54%▼ 3–10 years
What if East African integration lifts a 250m-person market?
52%▼ 1–3 years
What if USMCA review renewed, Mexico tariff cloud lifts?
52%▼ 3–10 years
What if Horn-of-Africa port boom anchors regional trade growth?
50%▼ 1–3 years
What if Ethiopia WTO accession and reforms draw FDI?
46%▲ 6–18 months
What if a Chinese open model tops the global rankings?
46%▼ 1–3 years
What if Reshoring + CHIPS subsidies broaden resilient chip supply?
43%▲ 0–6 months
What if China extends its phosphate export halt?
42%▼ 3–10 years
What if Vietnam 'China+1' FDI surge powers VND and equities?
42%▲ 0–6 months
What if US 50% Section-232 copper tariff blows out COMEX-LME spread?
40%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US barred outbound investment in Chinese tech?
40%▲ 3–10 years
What if the world splits into rival US and China tech blocs?
40%▲ 1–3 years
What if a Chinese lab matches a US flagship using only domestic chips?
40%▲ 1–3 years
What if Beijing subsidizes AI-chip exports to the Global South?
39%▲ 6–18 months
What if China exports deflation as factory-gate prices collapse?
39%▲ 6–18 months
What if China floods the world with subsidized steel and solar?
39%▲ 0–6 months
What if China reinstates its antimony export ban?
39%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US imposes flat per-parcel import duties?
39%▲ 0–6 months
What if US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goods?
37%▲ 0–6 months
What if India retaliates against US goods with fresh tariffs?
37%▼ 6–18 months
What if Global tariff de-escalation ignites risk-on?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if US and EU tariffs triple solar panel costs?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US builds a strategic critical-minerals reserve?
36%▼ 0–6 months
What if EU-US tariff truce averts trade war?
35%▲ 0–6 months
What if rules close the offshore cloud loophole for controlled chips?
35%▼ 6–18 months
What if US-China truce extended a second year to 2027?
35%▲ 6–18 months
What if Global goods-trade slump drags machinery and freight industrials?
34%▼ 1–3 years
What if Great-power climate-tech cooperation resumes?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if China floods the world with cheap humanoid robots?
33%▲ 0–6 months
What if China reimposes its graphite export curbs?
33%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Wa State keeps the Man Maw tin mine shut?
33%▼ 1–3 years
What if USMCA renewal stabilizes North American trade?
33%▼ 1–3 years
What if CHIPS-Act fabs ramp, easing supply fragility?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if US-EU-Japan tech alliance counters China scale?
33%▼ 1–3 years
What if Indonesia–EU CEPA deal unlocks export and FDI upside?
33%▼ 1–3 years
What if US-China chip détente: targeted export-control rollback?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if US-Mexico security pact replaces unilateral strikes?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if US stockpiles and price floors de-risk rare earths?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if China-allowed Nvidia chip sales resume under deal?
32%▼ 0–6 months
What if Soybeans rally as China resumes US buying?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if CNH firms to 6.9 as US-China tension fades?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if ASML-TSM relief rally on export-rule clarity?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if SMIC/Huawei domestic-stack acceleration erodes US chip share?
31%▲ 6–18 months
What if Indonesia bans nickel exports outright?
31%▲ 0–6 months
What if China bans phosphate fertilizer exports outright?
31%▼ 3–10 years
What if Magnet recycling ends rare-earth dependence?
31%▲ 1–3 years
What if US tightens rules-of-origin, squeezing ASEAN transshipment?
31%▲ 6–18 months
What if DRC cobalt export quota squeezes the battery chain?
30%▲ 3–10 years
What if a new trade bloc forms that shuts out the United States?
30%▲ 6–18 months
What if Brazil pivots its soy exports entirely to China?
30%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US bars exports of frontier AI model weights?
30%▼ 1–3 years
What if MP-Lynas crack Western heavy-REE supply?
30%▼ 1–3 years
What if Rare-earth glut as new supply outpaces demand?
30%▼ 1–3 years
What if Inflation-Reduction-Act content rules ease for allies?
30%▲ 6–18 months
What if China graphite export curb starves Western anode makers?
30%▲ 0–6 months
What if China phosphate export curb tightens world DAP/MAP supply?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if China's EV price war triggers a wave of bankruptcies?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if Trump freezes Taiwan arms sale as a Xi bargaining chip?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if US-China grand bargain on chips and minerals?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Phase-two US-China deal stabilizes trade?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Sanctions relief reopens a major economy to trade?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Indo-Pacific trade pact deepens regional integration?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if US-India strategic-economic pact deepens?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if Digital-trade and services deals offset goods tariffs?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Korea-Japan-US trilateral deepens deterrence and trade?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if China-EU EV-tariff truce reopens auto trade?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if USMCA July-2026 review renewed, clearing Mexico's tariff cloud?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if AfCFTA implementation lifts intra-African trade and FX?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if China-pharma PD-1/ADC innovation reshapes oncology competition?
28%▼ 6–18 months
What if the US and China strike a sweeping trade détente?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US slapped a blanket 60% tariff on Chinese imports?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if a major tech platform is banned or nationalised?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if low water paralyses the Rhine, Mississippi and Panama Canal?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if allies ban quantum-computing technology exports to China?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US imposes a blanket 60% tariff on all Chinese imports and Beijing retaliates in kind?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if US-China chip détente eases ASML/NVDA export curbs?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if China reaches 7nm-at-scale, blunting controls?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Friend-shoring rewires supply chains to allies?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if Quad critical-minerals pact counters China?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Managed US-China decoupling avoids a hard break?
28%▼ 6–18 months
What if Export-control thaw lifts equipment makers?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if Cross-border audit deal keeps Chinese listings in US?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if US lithium tariff wall reprices domestic battery-grade supply?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if China NdFeB magnet export ban halts EV-motor production lines?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russian enrichment cutoff strands 44% of world SWU capacity?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if US HALEU shortage stalls advanced-reactor fuel loading?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if US enrichment build-out under-delivers, deepening SWU squeeze?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Graphite anode supply curb forces battery-grade rationing?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Tariff cost-push: sticky goods inflation collides with slowing growth?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if GPU smuggling crackdown disrupts grey-market China supply?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if EU DMA gatekeeper fines compress platform ad take-rates?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if China industrial overcapacity floods global machinery and EV markets?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if China curbs rare-earth exports to EU carmakers?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if China fully halts rare-earth magnet exports?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if China embargoes tungsten and bismuth exports?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Copper squeezed by China-West minerals split?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if Secondary sanctions hit China-Russia oil trade?
27%▼ 6–18 months
What if Bilateral trade deals roll back reciprocal tariffs?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if USMCA July-2026 review collapses, triggering a peso shock?
27%▼ 6–18 months
What if Trade-thaw reflation revives a broad EM-FX inflow rally?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if Allied 'chip alliance' export bloc fragments global supply?
26%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US hikes Vietnam's transshipment tariff to 60%?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if cascading US-China-EU tariff blocs cut global trade volumes by 20%?
26%▼ 1–3 years
What if China-US chip thaw lets NVDA resume advanced sales to China?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if US-China tariff wall escalates to 60%+ average?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if Trade-war fragmentation tips global growth lower?
26%▲ 0–6 months
What if Steel-aluminum tariffs reset to 50%?
26%▼ 1–3 years
What if Mercosur-EU trade deal ratification boosts regional exporters?
25%▼ 3–10 years
What if US-China stable coexistence framework caps Asia tail-risk?
25%▲ 0–6 months
What if China weaponizes rare-earth export licensing?
25%▲ 0–6 months
What if US revokes China's permanent normal trade status?
25%▲ 0–6 months
What if China steel-export surge triggers global trade backlash?
25%▼ 1–3 years
What if Coordinated openness on trade and migration cools US prices (good)?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if chipmaking export controls widen to mature-node tools?
24%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US tears up the EU auto-tariff cap?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US applies 25% Section-232 tariffs on imported autos and parts from the EU, Japan and Korea?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Trump-Xi 'grand bargain' trades tariffs for Taiwan restraint?
24%▲ 0–6 months
What if CNH slides past 7.6 on tariff escalation?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if Allied AI-chip cartel coordinates export policy?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Trade truce revives global capex cycle?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if Mexico tariff threat pressures peso and supply chains?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if US tariff shock on Mexican autos hits the export engine?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if US reciprocal tariffs hit India's pharma and IT exports?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if US tariff shock hits Bangladesh's garment-export engine?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if China heavy-REE export licensing chokes Dy and Tb supply?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if China gallium and germanium block hits chip and optics supply?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if US ban on Russian uranium imports tightens enriched supply?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if EU Critical Raw Materials Act forces supplier diversification?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if Saudi and Gulf critical-minerals push diversifies refining?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if Western refining build-out finally breaks the midstream chokepoint?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if China urea export ban removes the world's swing supplier?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if US chip export-control escalation shuts a ~$50B China AI market?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if Section-232 tariff on imported chips jolts the supply chain?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if China rare-earth/gallium counter-embargo hits chip inputs?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if GPU export-control workaround chips revive China-facing revenue?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if an ASML export ban escalated the chip war?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Washington bars allied HBM sales to Chinese-linked AI clusters?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if US pharma tariffs are extended to generic drugs?
23%▲ 0–6 months
What if US approves $5B Taiwan arms package; Beijing sanctions primes?
23%▲ 1–3 years
What if China export-flood sparks Western tariff wall?
23%▼ 0–6 months
What if US–Vietnam deal caps tariff at 20%, relief rally in VN equities?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Western 'green nickel' tariff splits the LME into two prices?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if China tungsten export controls squeeze cutting-tool and munitions?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Tariff input-cost spike compresses industrial-maker margins?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if the PBOC lets the yuan break past 7.60?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if US tariffs snap Mexico's super-peso past 19?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if erratic tariff threats freeze global corporate investment?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if EU-US tariff war erupts over autos and tech?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if US pharma Section-232 tariff lifts drug costs?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if China rare-earth snapback hits defense supply?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Indonesia nickel ore export ban tightens global class-1 supply?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Critical-mineral price floors stabilize the Western supply chain?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Indonesia nickel cartel coordinates output to lift prices?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Equipment-maker China revenue cliff as controls bite?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if China dumps mature-node chips, crushing legacy-fab margins?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Sovereign-AI export limits fragment the accelerator market?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if TikTok forced-sale shock reshuffles social-ad budgets?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Trade-and-immigration combo shock compounds US stagflation?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US launches direct strikes on cartels in Mexico?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if a US-China tariff exchange escalates past 100% in successive rounds?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if reinstated and broadened Section-232 steel and aluminium tariffs trigger retaliatory metals duties globally?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if a friend-shoring scramble triggers a costly duplicative capex wave that raises goods costs structurally?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if US-China decouple chip supply chains, raising structural costs?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Comprehensive US-China deal eases tariffs and Taiwan tension?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sanctions snapback removes Venezuelan barrels again?
21%▼ 0–6 months
What if Boeing-soybeans package seals interim deal?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Critical-minerals club sets allied price floors?
21%▲ 0–6 months
What if Vietnam labeled FX manipulator, sparks tariff-FX doom loop?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Chinese-import flood deindustrializes Thai manufacturing base?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if ASEAN-China RCEP integration deepens regional supply chains?
21%▲ 0–6 months
What if Trade-war escalation hammers exporter EM currencies?
21%▲ 0–6 months
What if Sanctions on Russian Nornickel palladium spark supply scare?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Conversion-capacity squeeze spikes UF6 prices to records?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Enrichment price spike makes underfeeding the swing supply?
21%▼ 6–18 months
What if Panama Canal rains restore full transits, freight eases?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if China cracked sub-5nm chips on its own?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if China halted its rare-earth and gallium exports?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Myanmar's rare-earth mines collapse in the civil war?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if the US restricts gene-synthesis and AI protein-design tools?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Washington sharply tightens controls on advanced AI chips to China and closes third-country loopholes?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Sudan gold-for-weapons nexus hit by US sanctions?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if US bans all advanced-AI chip sales to China?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Tariff inflation forces a stagflationary mix?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Auto tariffs squeeze global carmakers?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Post-tariff COMEX copper premium collapses as US destocks?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if China bans rare-earth processing technology exports?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if China graphite-and-magnet retaliation answers US chip curbs?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if US stockpile build for critical minerals tightens spot markets?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if China engineers a 5nm-class breakthrough despite sanctions?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if drought at Panama and disruption at Suez hit at once?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Niger sells its seized uranium to Russia?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if tightened US chip export controls choke China's AI and tech ambitions?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if universal US tariffs pass through to consumer prices and force the Fed to hold rates higher?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Beijing bans rare-earth exports and chokes defense, EV and wind-turbine supply chains?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if China-Japan-Korea summit revives full economic cooperation?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if West tightens tech-export controls on China bloc?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Chip-equipment export ban widens to allies?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if Vietnam US-tech-FDI chill as tariff/transshipment fight drags?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if Lithium price war from Chinese state subsidy buries Western mines?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if DRC-China cobalt offtake renegotiation rattles supply terms?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if China rhardens dual-use end-user rules on critical metals?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if US foreign-entity sourcing rules lock Chinese metals out of credits?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if US tariffs on Chinese graphite reprice the anode supply chain?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if G7 critical-minerals buyers' club counters Chinese pricing?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Chile-China lithium-tech venture deepens processing ties?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if the PBOC devalues the yuan past 7.5 to the dollar?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if a yuan devaluation exports Chinese deflation to the rest of the world?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if collapsing Chinese demand and EV competition hammer German industry?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US imposes tariffs above 100% on broad categories of Chinese goods?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if broad US tariffs on Canadian autos, steel and energy tip Canada into recession?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if the EU retaliates against US auto tariffs with duties on American vehicles, agriculture and tech?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US and EU escalate secondary sanctions on banks handling Russian trade?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if sustained attacks force container lines to divert around the Cape of Good Hope?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if a severe drought slashes Panama Canal transits and reroutes US-Asia shipping?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US imposes a 10-20% universal baseline tariff on all imports?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US pressures allies to align tariffs against China?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if China retaliates with broad US-goods tariffs?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if China zeroes US soybean imports in retaliation?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if China bans key EV-battery tech exports?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if WTO breakdown ends rules-based trade order?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if Rare-earth scare drives MP/Lynas spike?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if Tech-bloc bifurcation hard-codes two standards?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if US-China financial decoupling delists Chinese ADRs?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Garment-buyer order shift to Vietnam dents Bangladesh exports?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if US reciprocal-tariff wave hits all five ASEAN exporters?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russian PGM export ban whipsaws platinum and palladium?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if China bismuth and indium curbs hit solders and displays?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Kazakh uranium rerouting through Russia raises supply risk?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Myanmar rare-earth supply cutoff jolts heavy-REE feed?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if China lithium-conversion tech curb slows Western refiners?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Rare-earth oxide stockpile dump by China resets prices lower?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if CBAM bites: EU carbon border tax hits steel & cement imports?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Globalization 2.0 disinflation: new trade corridors cut costs?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if allies are forced to match a US chipmaking-tool export ban?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if SMIC reaches TSMC-class 5nm economics without EUV?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if China bans rare-earth exports to retaliate against tech restrictions?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if the US imposes tariffs on imported chips and chip-containing goods to reshore fabrication?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if China-Japan-Korea trilateral FTA talks restart amid détente?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if China retaliatory tech curbs squeeze ASML/Applied in Asia?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if AES exit tariffs disrupt ECOWAS supply chains?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if China adds gallium-germanium-graphite export bans?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Full US-China tech decoupling fractures supply chains?
17%▼ 3–10 years
What if US-China cold-war détente stabilizes the system?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Carbon-border tariffs reshape global copper-smelting flows?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if China prosecutes offshore issuers of yuan-linked stablecoins?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US makes its universal tariff baseline permanent?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Germany forces COSCO out of Hamburg's port?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US hits major Chinese banks with secondary sanctions?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if record Chinese steel exports flood world markets and crush margins?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if US-China decoupling accelerates sharply and fragments global supply chains?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if Beijing front-runs a US tariff hike with an immediate across-the-board retaliation?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if broad tariffs produce a stagflationary mix of higher inflation and recession risk?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Beijing extends export licensing to battery-grade graphite and antimony, squeezing EV and defense makers?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if multinationals accelerate China exits and FDI into China turns net-negative?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if trade reorganizes along geopolitical lines into US-aligned and China-aligned blocs?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if major partners coordinate retaliation against US tariffs targeting agriculture, aircraft and tech?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if supply-chain reshoring embeds a persistent cost-push inflation wave?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if AUKUS Pillar-2 expands; China decries a regional arms race?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if US designates cartels and launches sustained operations?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if China cuts off antimony and tungsten to the West?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if US tariff wall on LatAm goods reorders regional trade?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if Indonesia copper concentrate export ban strands Grasberg units?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if Tin and copper co-spike as Indonesia restricts metal exports?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Philippine and Indonesian nickel curbs ripple into stainless-and-PGM?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if China sinks a Philippine ship in the South China Sea?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if the UK-EU customs deal collapses over Northern Ireland?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if the US bans outbound investment in Chinese AI and semiconductors?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if China escalates rare-earth export controls and chokes magnet supply?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US and EU impose steep tariffs on Chinese solar modules, batteries and EVs?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Chinese export curbs on rare earths and battery metals drive a multi-fold price spike?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if the US and EU race to stockpile critical minerals but multi-year lead times leave supply chains exposed?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if the Netherlands halts EUV servicing and new DUV lithography sales to China?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Beijing retaliates against chip equipment controls by curbing mature-node chip exports?
15%▲ 3–10 years
What if an expanded BRICS+ bloc deepens non-dollar settlement and sidelines the US?
15%▲ 3–10 years
What if the WTO appellate system stays paralysed and members resort to unilateral tariffs?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if a China demand slump unleashes export dumping of steel, solar and EVs and triggers global tariff retaliation?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US snaps a 25% tariff on broad Chinese goods overnight?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if a broad Section 301 action layers new tariffs on Chinese shipbuilding and chips?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if US strikes Mexican cartel labs on Mexican soil?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if US escalates chip Section-232 tariff to 100%?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Indonesia resource-nationalism scares off Western EV capital?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if China cuts off all rare-earth magnet exports in a trade rupture?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Solar-panel trade war: tariffs slow Western deployment?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if Indonesia bans palm oil exports again?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if leveraged auto-parts suppliers default as EV transition, tariffs, and weak demand collide?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if China's industrial overcapacity triggers a global wave of protective tariffs?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if China's overcapacity floods global aluminium and nickel markets?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if major exporters cascade wheat export bans and fragment the global market?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if China retaliates against US tariffs with regulatory probes and selective import bans rather than matching duties?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if tariffs on pharmaceuticals and active ingredients expose US dependence on China and India API supply?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if China targets US soybeans, corn and pork with retaliatory tariffs and collapses US farm exports?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if an expanded CFIUS-style regime blocks Chinese investment across tech, biotech and infrastructure?
14%▲ 3–10 years
What if US- and China-led technology stacks harden into incompatible blocs?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if threatened US tariffs on Mexico over Chinese transshipment disrupt nearshoring bets and the peso?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if trade fragmentation triggers a sudden stop in emerging markets?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if cumulative tariff shocks tip the US and global economy into recession?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if competing industrial subsidies escalate into a global subsidy war?
14%▲ 3–10 years
What if full EU CBAM enforcement sharply erodes EM exporters' market access?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if US-Japan-Korea trilateral cracks as Seoul-Tokyo feud reignites?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if EU GSP-status review threatens Bangladesh trade preferences?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if China dumping floods Vietnam with goods, widens trade deficit?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if EU/US push nickel anti-dumping duties on Indonesian steel?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if India sugar export ban on monsoon shortfall lifts prices?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if Mexico loses its USMCA tariff exemption?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Congo slashes its cobalt export quota toward zero?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if accelerated friend-shoring disrupts global manufacturing supply chains?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if a yuan devaluation ignites competitive currency responses across Asia?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if the EU and US erect steep tariff walls against Chinese EVs and solar panels?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if a 20% drop in world trade slams euro-area export volumes?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if US tariff escalation drives USD/CAD past 1.50 as Canadian terms of trade deteriorate?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if US tariffs and content rules gut the North American auto supply chain through Canada?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if DRC disruption and Chinese stockpiling weaponize the cobalt market?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if successive escalation drives bilateral US-China goods trade toward near-zero?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if China restricts tungsten and specialty-metal exports used in tooling and electronics?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if China and Japan restrict photoresists and neon gas essential to chip lithography?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US bars American capital and talent from advanced Chinese semiconductor and AI ventures?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if a shadow-fleet and barter network erodes sanctions efficacy and creates hidden counterparty exposures?
13%▲ 3–10 years
What if sanctions weaponization splits global payments into rival Western and China-led blocs?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Washington broadens outbound-investment bans to biotech and clean tech beyond chips and AI?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if the EU adopts a harder inbound and outbound screening regime toward China?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if governments force divestiture of strategically sensitive cross-border holdings and trigger fire-sale valuations?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if a USMCA renegotiation breakdown triggers US tariff threats on Mexico and Canada?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if a supply shock triggers competitive food-export bans and spikes global food prices?
13%▲ 3–10 years
What if the world settles into a durable fragmentation regime of higher tariffs and bifurcated tech?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if full EU carbon border adjustment plus retaliation from China and India fragments carbon-intensive trade?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US and EU crack down on Chinese goods rerouted via Vietnam and Mexico?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if tariffs and export curbs on medical devices and generics expose pandemic-era supply concentration?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if geopolitical curbs fragment the aerospace supply chain and squeeze Boeing and Airbus output?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if tit-for-tat duties on wine, spirits and luxury goods escalate an EU-US or EU-China trade dispute?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if export-dependent economies like Germany and Korea tip into recession?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if tariffs and decoupling sharply cut multinational corporate earnings?
13%▲ 3–10 years
What if elevated US tariffs become a permanent fixture across administrations?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if sanctions and trade exclusion push frontier EMs into debt distress?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if security-driven pharma reshoring creates drug shortages and higher costs?
13%▲ 3–10 years
What if EU, US and Asian carbon prices diverge sharply, creating leakage and competitiveness gaps?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if China deepens military-industrial backing of Russia?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if European auto OEMs and suppliers face a fallen-angel downgrade wave?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if escalating US-China tech restrictions disrupt global electronics supply chains both ways?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if the EV transition, Chinese competition and tariffs cut German vehicle output sharply?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Singapore suffers a trade-driven deep recession with equities down 46% and property 25%?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if snapback sanctions remove 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian exports from the market?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if a secondary-sanctions crackdown on Russian and Iranian oil disrupts payments and shipping?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if China tightens graphite export licenses and starves non-Chinese gigafactories?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if tightened US export controls on advanced AI chips disrupt supply and re-rate hardware names?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if tariffs on industrial machinery and robots raise reshoring capital expenditure costs?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if a full Western embargo on frontier AI accelerators bifurcates the global compute stack?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if forced decoupling strands China-exposed plants and IP for Western firms?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if top rice exporters restrict shipments and spike Asian rice prices?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if a resource-nationalism wave sees producer states nationalize lithium, copper and nickel exports?
12%▲ 3–10 years
What if trade and capital openness retrace decades of integration as security trumps efficiency?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if retaliation extends into services and digital trade via data-localization rules and digital taxes?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Western tech export controls and Chinese mineral counter-controls escalate into a mutual export-control spiral?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if restrictions on Chinese-made cranes and port logistics tech force costly replacement across Western ports?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if fragmentation and reshoring permanently lift the structural inflation floor?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if a sweeping US Entity List expansion cuts off Chinese tech firms?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if export controls on chip-design software and AI models escalate?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if China's subsidised AI-chip push floods mature-node markets with overcapacity?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if China restricts outbound tourism and study to coerce target economies?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if China repeats its 2020 trade coercion against another economy's exports?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US tariffs Chinese electronics routed through Mexico?
12%▲ 3–10 years
What if Chinese EV exports strand Western ICE producers and trigger tariff retaliation?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Scarborough Shoal 'nature reserve' enforced as a China blockade?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if US-China Busan truce extended past Nov 2026?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if Trade-war détente sparks SOX/SMH melt-up?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if the US cut a major economy off from SWIFT?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if USMCA broke down and severed North American supply chains?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if the EU bans new gene-edited crops?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if nearshoring FDI into Mexico reverses on USMCA uncertainty and tariff threats?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if a China financial crisis reverses outbound investment into Vietnam and ASEAN?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if China expands critical-mineral export controls in retaliation for tech restrictions?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Germany's export model stalls on weak Chinese demand, US tariffs and high energy costs?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if an intensified US-China tariff war tips export-dependent Asian economies into recession?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a global trade slump and weak euro-area demand tip Sweden into recession?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a trade-war stress scenario pushes most Norwegian banks below their capital requirements?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Chinese rebar prices fall below cash cost and export steel deflation globally?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if Western export controls and Chinese countermeasures bifurcate critical-minerals markets?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if India and other exporters curb rice shipments and spike Asian staple prices?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if China extends phosphate fertilizer export restrictions and tightens global supply?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Indonesia reimposing palm-oil export restrictions spikes vegetable-oil prices globally?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if a wave of resource-nationalist export taxes and nationalisations tightens metals supply?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if insufficient Western smelting capacity creates a midstream bottleneck for transition metals?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if a global rearmament cycle surges demand for titanium, tungsten and rare earths?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a supply disruption exposes US dependence on imported copper for grid and EV build-out?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if India broadens rice, wheat and sugar export bans and removes a major global supplier?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if China bans rare-earth magnets for military end-users and disrupts Western missile and jet production?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Washington threatens secondary sanctions on Chinese banks aiding Russia's war economy?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if chokepoint diversions and port congestion drive spot container rates up multiples?
11%▲ 3–10 years
What if major economies abandon most-favored-nation treatment in favor of discriminatory bilateral deals?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if escalating EV-tariff disputes spiral into a broad EU-China trade conflict?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a major EM under sanction pressure imposes capital controls and traps foreign investors?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if a broad US-China rupture spanning trade, tech, finance and Taiwan hits simultaneously?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if mandated removal of Chinese 5G equipment fragments the global telecom stack?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if controls on drones and dual-use sensors, met by Chinese counter-controls, disrupt defense supply chains?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if export controls and investment bans extend to quantum computing and advanced biotech?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if rival tech and regulatory standards fragment global trade invisibly?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if Beijing's Unreliable-Entity List penalises Western multinationals?
11%▲ 3–10 years
What if dollar weaponisation gradually erodes its reserve-currency dominance?
11%▲ 3–10 years
What if China builds a parallel demand bloc across the Global South?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if allied governments purge Chinese-linked port and logistics software?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if governments nationalize strategic firms to block foreign control?
11%▲ 3–10 years
What if the EU carbon border tax makes EM steel exports uncompetitive?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if Rwanda sanctions over M23 hit mineral transit?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sahel-coast tension shuts a key transit corridor?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if De-globalization inflation premium: fractured supply chains lift CPI?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US banned all advanced AI chips from China?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if China bans exports of all rare-earth magnets?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if energy costs and Chinese competition force a sharp de-rating of European autos and industrials?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if global trade fragmentation durably reduces throughput at Singapore's port and refining complex?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a US-China trade war collapses Hong Kong's re-export and logistics volumes?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a euro-area trade slowdown hits Denmark's open, pharma- and shipping-heavy economy?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if a lower G7 oil price cap and shadow-fleet sanctions squeeze Russian export logistics?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if coordinated seizure of Russia's shadow tanker fleet disrupts export logistics?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a US-China trade rupture disrupts soybean flows and spikes oilseed prices?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if Indian and Thai cane shortfalls and export curbs spike global sugar prices?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if geoeconomic fragmentation into rival blocs raises critical-minerals costs structurally?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if comprehensive sanctions on Russian aluminium, nickel and palladium remove major supply?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if China export controls on antimony and tungsten choke Western munitions supply chains?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if China's dominance of lithium refining becomes a chokepoint for non-Chinese battery makers?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if phosphate-rock concentration and depletion raise long-run fertilizer costs?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if China's near-total control of rare-earth processing leaves Western magnet supply hostage?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if simultaneous cobalt and battery-grade nickel disruptions tighten the EV cathode supply chain?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if China curbs magnesium and metallurgical silicon supply and starves global auto supply chains?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if insufficient battery-recycling capacity leaves lithium and cobalt secondary supply short?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if governments stockpile copper, lithium and rare earths for security and drain available supply?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if the capital cost of decarbonising steelmaking raises global steel prices and strands old capacity?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if Russia weaponizes its dominant share of global wheat exports?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if China restricts rare-earth and gallium exports critical to chip manufacturing?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if a sovereign AI fragmentation scramble splinters supply chains and strands capacity?
10%▲ 3–10 years
What if BRICS launches a working cross-border payment system to rival SWIFT?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if major Chinese or Gulf banks are cut from US dollar clearing for sanctions breaches?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if restrictions on nitrogen and potash exports spike fertilizer prices and trigger a global food-inflation shock?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if Indonesia, Chile or the DRC tighten nickel, lithium and cobalt export rules?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if reciprocal sanctions between great powers escalate into a self-reinforcing spiral?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if banks over-comply with sanctions and freeze legitimate trade finance?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if a dominant producer weaponises strategic commodity stockpiles?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if mutual visa curbs fragment the global tech-talent pool?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if IP and patent regimes decouple across the US-China divide?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if trans-boundary water disputes escalate into trade and diplomatic friction?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if mineral-rich blocs use lithium and rare earths as coercive leverage?
10%▲ 3–10 years
What if major blocs diverge sharply on carbon policy, creating leakage and trade friction?
10%▲ 3–10 years
What if rare-earth bottlenecks constrain wind-turbine and EV magnet supply?
10%▲ 3–10 years
What if CBAM reprices coal-powered aluminium against renewable-powered rivals?
10%▲ 3–10 years
What if EU CBAM and copycat schemes hit China's carbon-intensive industrial exports?
10%▼ 1–3 years
What if Turkey draws nearshoring FDI as a Europe-adjacent base?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Indonesia nickel-policy spillover lifts stainless and PGM costs?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if a coup in Egypt threatens transit through the Suez Canal?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China re-imposes its gallium and germanium export ban?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if a sting shuts down a Southeast Asian GPU smuggling ring?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China quarantines Taiwan by inspecting every inbound ship?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if Washington and Beijing freeze each other's sovereign assets?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China bars foreign chip engineers from leaving?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if cartels openly capture a northern Mexican state?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US chip-tool ban reaches mature 14 and 28nm nodes?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US extends HBM memory curbs further downstream?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US cuts off chip-design software to China?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China reinstates a full gallium and germanium ban?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Dutch halt ASML servicing of chip machines in China?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if Japan weaponizes its photoresist and etching-gas exports?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if trade fragmentation drives a 6% cumulative GDP fall across the euro area?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if persistently high energy costs erode the competitiveness of Italy's manufacturing exporters?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if steep US tariffs on autos gut Japan's largest export sector?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if escalating semiconductor export controls disrupt Japan's chip-equipment exports?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if a global trade-finance contraction hits Singapore's role as Asia's commodity-finance hub?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if a global semiconductor downturn hits Singapore's manufacturing and re-exports?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia sanctions extend to palladium and nickel and tighten battery-metal markets?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if carbon-border adjustment and green-steel mandates reprice the global steel market?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if Argentine export-tax changes and FX controls distort global soybean and corn flows?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if new tariffs and sanctions on aluminium exporters fragment markets and spike regional premiums?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if sanctions on Russian palladium spike autocatalyst costs for automakers?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if escalating controls cut US chipmakers off from the China market?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if coordinated allied export controls harden into rival technology blocs?
9%▲ 3–10 years
What if the mBridge CBDC platform scales for commodity settlement outside the dollar?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China halts gallium and germanium exports and disrupts chip and fiber-optic production worldwide?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if G7 reserve freezes on a major economy prompt reserve managers worldwide to diversify away from seizable assets?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if widespread GPS jamming disrupts shipping, aviation and timing-dependent finance?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if security curbs split the global cloud and data-centre market?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if great-power competition over Arctic routes and resources escalates?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if an abrupt rule change halts AI-chip exports to China overnight?
9%▲ 3–10 years
What if the world splits into rival tech-and-monetary blocs with incompatible systems?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if the US and allies formalise a multilateral chip export-control regime against China?
9%▲ 3–10 years
What if CBAM-affected exporters retaliate and spark a green trade war?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China tightens gallium/germanium ban on chip toolmakers?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if US-China truce collapses at the tariff cliff?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if Truce holds on tariffs but chip war re-escalates?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if US slaps Section-232 semiconductor tariff at 25%?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China imposes full rare-earth & magnet embargo?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if Chip-war shock drives 20% SOX drawdown?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if NVDA China-revenue cliff on new license freeze?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if US chip-diversion probe slaps curbs on Malaysian data centers?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China antimony export curb spikes prices over 2,600%?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China samarium export halt grounds defense magnet supply?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China critical-metals export-control escalation rattles markets?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if Russia bans palladium exports in retaliation?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if foot-and-mouth disease reaches Australia?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if broad import tariffs spike inflation and keep the Fed restrictive as growth slows?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if sweeping US tariffs on Mexican goods tip Mexico into recession?
8%▲ 3–10 years
What if high energy costs and an innovation gap erode EU competitiveness versus the US and China?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if collapsing container rates hit Singapore's maritime-finance lenders and offshore-marine borrowers?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if a global semiconductor downturn hits Malaysia's large electronics-export base?
Showing the top 500 by probability of 551. Open the full library in the Scenario Lab →