What if a second Evergrande spreads China's property crisis worldwide?
Evergrande 2.0 hits the China-demand complex first: copper and Freeport sell on ~55% Chinese demand, AUD weakens as the liquid proxy, and the managed yuan grinds lower. Rhymes with the 2021 Kaisa/Evergrande offshore-default wave that crushed Chinese HY and dragged base metals. Transmission runs through Australia (iron-ore/coking-coal exports) and German capital goods into China. Forward angle: Beijing now front-runs contagion with managed restructurings, so the offshore-USD-bond channel transmits more than a sudden onshore banking break.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A renewed China property crisis (Evergrande 2.0) triggers financial contagion. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.94–+0.54% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.08–+0.29% · other way +1.57% (n=12) |
| 3 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.58–+0.12% · other way -0.26% (n=11) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.59–+2.16% · other way -3.17% (n=11) |
| 5 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.76–+0.01% · other way -1.69% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.47–-0.07% · other way -0.59% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.88–+1.35% · other way +25.2% (n=12) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.61–+0.07% · other way -0.24% (n=12) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.27–+0.78% · other way -3.79% (n=12) |
| 10 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.15–-0.08% · other way -0.82% (n=12) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.4–+1.34% · other way +2.93% (n=12) |
| 12 | KOSPI 200 KR200on Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.09–+0.34% · other way +2.62% (n=12) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.69–+0.15% · other way -0.19% (n=12) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.14–+1.88% · other way +5.1% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short on MSTR: the +19% is BTC-regime contamination — ASML-miss and Evergrande-liquidation windows show MSTR ripping +61-69% on unrelated crypto tailwinds, swamping any China-contagion drag.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 67% | 37 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.0% | 67% | 37 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.0% | 66% | 35 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.9% | 61% | 37 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.3% | 61% | 37 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.6% | 60% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.1% | 58% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -3.5% | 59% | 37 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -4.0% | 58% | 21 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 23 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| KR200 KR200 | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.8% | 57% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 55% | 36 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.3% | 53% | 37 | 0.06 | · |
Why this probability
China property already chronic and managed; fresh offshore contagion partly priced, Beijing backstops. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.