What if a second Evergrande spreads China's property crisis worldwide?
Evergrande 2.0 hits the China-demand complex first: copper and Freeport sell on ~55% Chinese demand, AUD weakens as the liquid proxy, and the managed yuan grinds lower. Rhymes with the 2021 Kaisa/Evergrande offshore-default wave that crushed Chinese HY and dragged base metals. Transmission runs through Australia (iron-ore/coking-coal exports) and German capital goods into China. Forward angle: Beijing now front-runs contagion with managed restructurings, so the offshore-USD-bond channel transmits more than a sudden onshore banking break.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A renewed China property crisis (Evergrande 2.0) triggers financial contagion. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.