What if China property stabilization revives EM risk?
Decisive measures finally stabilize Chinese property and credit, lifting china_growth, copper and EM FX in a durable Asia-led risk-on phase.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Decisive measures finally stabilize Chinese property and credit, lifting china_growth, copper and EM FX in a durable Asia-led risk-on phase. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Copper ▲ · China growth ▲ · China stimulus ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.12–+1.62% · other way -1.56% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.07–+1.62% · other way -0.27% (n=12) |
| 3 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.13–+0.84% · other way -1.39% (n=12) |
| 4 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist -2.0–+1.12% · other way +0.28% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -6.69–+2.1% · other way -17.08% (n=8) |
| 6 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.04–+1.06% · other way -1.24% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -3.88–+11.6% · other way +4.82% (n=12) |
| 8 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.03–+0.45% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 9 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.03–+0.31% · other way -0.19% (n=12) |
| 10 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.31–+0.29% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.76–+2.17% · other way -11.51% (n=9) |
| 13 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.48–+0.41% · other way +0.03% (n=12) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.43–+1.36% · other way -5.01% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +3bp | 71% | 40 | 0.33 | · |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 40 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.6% | 66% | 40 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.7% | 66% | 40 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.4% | 66% | 40 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -8.3% | 66% | 40 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 63% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +10.4% · 5d +0.1% | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.1% | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.4% | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 59% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |