What if China property-stress disinflation eases DM goods inflation?
Weak Chinese property demand and excess factory capacity push down export prices, helping cool developed-market goods inflation and supporting rate cuts; the China-disinflation channel is a mild positive for DM bonds and risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Weak Chinese property demand and excess factory capacity push down export prices, helping cool developed-market goods inflation and supporting rate cuts; the China-disinflation channel is a mild positive for DM bonds and risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Mortgage rates ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -17.09–+1.64% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.5–+1.13% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -9.39–+2.18% · other way +7.53% (n=12) |
| 5 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.23–-0.07% · other way -1.48% (n=12) |
| 6 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.87–+0.51% · other way +2.81% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.62–+0.9% · other way +14.38% (n=12) |
| 8 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.26–-0.02% · other way +3.17% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.75–+0.39% · other way -1.41% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.0–+0.29% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 11 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.31–+0.02% · other way -0.09% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.9–+1.37% · other way +3.26% (n=12) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -5.81–+1.77% · other way -3.1% (n=12) |
| 14 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.27–+0.8% · other way +0.72% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -13.6% · 5d -16.1% | 79% | 27 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.2% · 5d -8.6% | 69% | 29 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.9% | 64% | 33 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -4.2% | 66% | 33 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.3% | 60% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.18 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.6% | 60% | 37 | 0.16 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.3% | 58% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.4% | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.5% | 58% | 34 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.3% | 56% | 34 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -5.1% | 54% | 34 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.0% | 54% | 34 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 54% | 34 | 0.05 | · |