What if China property-stress disinflation eases DM goods inflation?
Weak Chinese property demand and excess factory capacity push down export prices, helping cool developed-market goods inflation and supporting rate cuts; the China-disinflation channel is a mild positive for DM bonds and risk.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Weak Chinese property demand and excess factory capacity push down export prices, helping cool developed-market goods inflation and supporting rate cuts; the China-disinflation channel is a mild positive for DM bonds and risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Mortgage rates ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.