What if China prosecutes offshore issuers of yuan-linked stablecoins?
Beijing invoking joint-liability to prosecute offshore RMB-stablecoin issuers severs cross-border crypto rails and freezes payment partners — ETH/BTC down ~3-5% on Asia-liquidity loss. Here the China/trade_tension framing is more defensible than 650-652 since China-policy genuinely spills to China megacaps, but the semis/Nvidia/Alibaba magnitudes look oversized for a stablecoin-rails action; the dominant channel is severed Asian crypto liquidity, not the tech supply chain. Rhymes with China's 2021 crypto ban that rerouted flow offshore.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Beijing invokes joint-liability rules to prosecute offshore firms issuing RMB-linked stablecoins to Chinese users, freezing payment partners and severing cross-border rails. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.