What if China's shrinking workforce forces a structurally weaker yuan?
A demographic-driven fall in China's potential growth pushes Beijing toward easier policy and a managed yuan depreciation, exporting disinflation and pressuring EM exporters that compete with it.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A demographic-driven fall in China's potential growth pushes Beijing toward easier policy and a managed yuan depreciation, exporting disinflation and pressuring EM exporters that compete with it. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · China growth ▼ · Global growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.47–-0.24% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -17.07–+9.01% · other way -2.36% (n=12) |
| 3 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.74–+0.04% · other way -0.08% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.26–+3.41% · other way +23.21% (n=12) |
| 5 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.48–+1.63% · other way +0.86% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.5–-0.06% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 8 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.85–+0.17% · other way +3.0% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -12.5–+6.32% · other way +3.62% (n=12) |
| 10 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.31–+1.15% · other way -0.3% (n=12) |
| 11 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.23–+0.33% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.23–-0.1% · other way +2.49% (n=12) |
| 13 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.53–+0.05% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 14 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.81–+0.23% · other way -0.93% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -16.8% · 5d -22.6% | 78% | 9 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -12.2% · 5d -12.0% | 73% | 11 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.1% | 73% | 15 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 68% | 19 | 0.32 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d +5.0% ↺ fades | 65% | 17 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 15 | 0.23 | · |
| KR200 KR200 | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.3% | 65% | 17 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -6.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 15 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 15 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 60% | 15 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.9% | 60% | 15 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.8% | 60% | 15 | 0.15 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.6% | 58% | 19 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.5% | 57% | 14 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |