What if global green-finance standards divert capital from China's carbon-intensive SOEs?
Global green-finance standards divert capital from China's carbon-intensive sectors, tightening funding for high-emission SOEs amid an already-strained property cycle.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Global green-finance standards divert capital from China's carbon-intensive sectors, tightening funding for high-emission SOEs amid an already-strained property cycle. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · China growth ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.88–+1.13% · other way +0.06% (n=11) |
| 2 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.6–+0.35% · other way -0.81% (n=11) |
| 3 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.62–+0.44% · other way +0.73% (n=11) |
| 4 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.42–-0.04% · other way -0.86% (n=11) |
| 5 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.86–+0.52% · other way -1.29% (n=9) |
| 6 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.51–+1.49% · other way -4.35% (n=11) |
| 7 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.48–+0.0% · other way -0.46% (n=11) |
| 8 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.16–+0.95% · other way -2.96% (n=11) |
| 9 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.26–+0.02% · other way -4.57% (n=9) |
| 10 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.42–-0.01% · other way -0.33% (n=11) |
| 11 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.25–-0.03% · other way -1.81% (n=11) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.65–+0.11% · other way -0.05% (n=11) |
| 13 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.17–+2.02% · other way +27.34% (n=11) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.08–+0.44% · other way +1.69% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.0% | 69% | 38 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.8% | 67% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -2.4% | 65% | 38 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.9% | 62% | 38 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.0% | 60% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.6% | 58% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -3.4% | 57% | 32 | 0.12 | · |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 55% | 38 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 44% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 49% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |