What if Clean-energy credit rollback freezes US battery investment?
A repeal or sharp narrowing of clean-energy manufacturing credits strands planned US gigafactory and cathode projects, deepening reliance on imports and hitting the sector.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A repeal or sharp narrowing of clean-energy manufacturing credits strands planned US gigafactory and cathode projects, deepening reliance on imports and hitting the sector. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -1.94–+0.75% · other way -6.55% (n=5) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.9% hist -5.21–+0.63% · other way -9.91% (n=4) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.32–+0.92% · other way -0.8% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -3.87–+0.84% · other way -6.31% (n=5) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.97–+3.16% · other way +1.14% (n=5) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.49–+1.35% |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.4–+0.33% · other way -0.12% (n=6) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.62–+0.76% |
| 10 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.26–+1.84% · other way +62.86% (n=5) |
| 11 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -5.01–+0.77% · other way -4.88% (n=5) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.26–-0.05% |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.29–+0.97% · other way -1.2% (n=6) |
| 14 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.09–+0.64% · other way -2.01% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -1.6% | 79% | 39 | 0.53 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -3.2% | 78% | 39 | 0.48 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -3.0% | 72% | 39 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -2.2% | 71% | 39 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.5% | 69% | 39 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -9.2% | 70% | 14 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.2% | 64% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.2% | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.7% | 61% | 21 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.17 | · |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.2% | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.2% · 5d +0.0% | 57% | 39 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d +0bp | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |