What if Climate-driven crop volatility keeps India inflation sticky?
Recurring heat and erratic monsoons make food prices structurally volatile, keeping headline inflation lumpy and constraining how far the RBI can ease over the cycle.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Recurring heat and erratic monsoons make food prices structurally volatile, keeping headline inflation lumpy and constraining how far the RBI can ease over the cycle. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.21–+4.7% · other way -2.24% (n=11) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.02–+0.47% · other way -1.94% (n=12) |
| 4 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.06–+0.27% · other way -0.85% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.2–+3.22% · other way +3.85% (n=11) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.38–+0.57% · other way +32.94% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.31–+0.5% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.44–+0.75% · other way -0.55% (n=12) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.36–+0.49% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.07–+3.57% · other way +8.53% (n=11) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.78–+6.04% · other way +3.4% (n=12) |
| 12 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -1.45–+0.51% · other way +0.65% (n=12) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -0.83–+3.76% · other way +4.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.0% · 5d +8.1% | 63% | 19 | 0.23 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.6% | 61% | 18 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.4% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 8 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 61% | 18 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 59% | 20 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 18 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 56% | 18 | 0.08 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +2bp | 52% | 27 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +2bp | 52% | 29 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 50% | 18 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.4% | 39% | 18 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 40% | 10 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.8% | 50% | 18 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.0% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 50% | 12 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |