What if Climate-driven crop volatility keeps India inflation sticky?
Recurring heat and erratic monsoons make food prices structurally volatile, keeping headline inflation lumpy and constraining how far the RBI can ease over the cycle.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Recurring heat and erratic monsoons make food prices structurally volatile, keeping headline inflation lumpy and constraining how far the RBI can ease over the cycle. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.