What if MSCI India weight overtakes China in EM benchmark?
India's free-float and earnings growth push its MSCI EM weight above China's, mechanically steering global EM allocations toward Indian equities and supporting NIFTY and the rupee.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. India's free-float and earnings growth push its MSCI EM weight above China's, mechanically steering global EM allocations toward Indian equities and supporting NIFTY and the rupee. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Global growth ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.