What if climate-adaptation borrowing adds to deficits and reinforces the term-premium rise?
Large climate-adaptation and disaster-relief borrowing across advanced economies adds to deficits and sovereign supply, reinforcing the term-premium rise.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Large climate-adaptation and disaster-relief borrowing across advanced economies adds to deficits and sovereign supply, reinforcing the term-premium rise. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.67–+0.24% · other way +0.38% (n=11) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -4.74–+1.3% · other way +27.34% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.55–-0.21% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.67–+2.13% · other way -3.19% (n=9) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.43–-0.16% · other way +6.08% (n=9) |
| 6 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -9.21–+4.19% · other way +16.7% (n=12) |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.33–-0.14% · other way +0.7% (n=11) |
| 8 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -8.43–+6.35% · other way +18.0% (n=12) |
| 9 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.65–+0.03% · other way -0.33% (n=11) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.49–-0.01% · other way -1.07% (n=12) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.59–+1.4% · other way +2.85% (n=11) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.39–+1.34% · other way -4.35% (n=11) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.14–+1.8% · other way +4.1% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.8% | 69% | 38 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -8.4% | 71% | 7 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d -4bp | 65% | 40 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 31 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -3.5% | 67% | 6 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.2% | 64% | 11 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 32 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 60% | 30 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +7.3% · 5d +2.3% | 59% | 34 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.0% | 59% | 32 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 67% | 3 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -3.0% | 59% | 32 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 36 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -11bp · 5d -5bp | 54% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |