What if Climate litigation wave: majors face damages liability?
Landmark court rulings hold fossil producers liable for climate damages, opening a litigation floodgate that pressures energy-sector valuations and credit spreads.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Landmark court rulings hold fossil producers liable for climate damages, opening a litigation floodgate that pressures energy-sector valuations and credit spreads. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.23–+0.15% · other way -7.57% (n=7) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.0–+0.08% · other way -7.91% (n=7) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.38–+1.97% · other way +2.92% (n=7) |
| 4 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.28–+0.28% · other way -1.97% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.33–-0.01% · other way +0.63% (n=4) |
| 6 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.09–+0.65% · other way -9.0% (n=7) |
| 7 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.42–+0.27% · other way -0.71% (n=7) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.37–+1.18% · other way -10.3% (n=7) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.27–+0.27% · other way +6.39% (n=4) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.27–+0.16% · other way -0.43% (n=8) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.61–+0.79% · other way +9.01% (n=4) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.16–+0.24% · other way +3.53% (n=7) |
| 14 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.94–+2.51% · other way +59.03% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -1.5% | 71% | 40 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.6% | 65% | 39 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.6% | 63% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.5% | 60% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.5% | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.4% | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -2bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -4.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 21 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.0% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.8% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.5% | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |