What if Climate-tech funding bust: clean-energy startups fail en masse?
Higher rates and disappointing returns trigger a wave of clean-tech bankruptcies, denting clean-energy capex, sentiment and the broader transition timeline.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Higher rates and disappointing returns trigger a wave of clean-tech bankruptcies, denting clean-energy capex, sentiment and the broader transition timeline. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -1.44–+1.02% · other way -2.18% (n=9) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.0% hist -8.03–+0.16% · other way -3.76% (n=9) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.05–+0.69% · other way +1.14% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.9% hist -5.99–+0.99% · other way -4.29% (n=9) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -11.74–+4.05% · other way +3.81% (n=8) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.92–+0.74% · other way +16.4% (n=9) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.58–-0.12% · other way -1.65% (n=10) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.42–+2.68% · other way +2.7% (n=8) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.85–+0.6% · other way +13.2% (n=10) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.3–+1.97% · other way +6.09% (n=8) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.64–+0.04% · other way +0.42% (n=9) |
| 13 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.28–+1.78% · other way +25.6% (n=9) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.45–+0.34% · other way -1.15% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -6.1% · 5d -3.4% | 84% | 30 | 0.58 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.6% · 5d -11.0% | 88% | 10 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -3.4% | 76% | 33 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -4.3% | 69% | 15 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -14bp · 5d -3bp | 65% | 39 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -3.6% | 66% | 33 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d +2.6% ↺ fades | 65% | 10 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -16bp · 5d -4bp | 62% | 39 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 31 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 33 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.0% | 61% | 33 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.2% | 60% | 33 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 33 | 0.18 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 31 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |