What if CNH convertibility leap boosts yuan reserve role?
China loosens capital controls and deepens CNH markets, lifting the yuan's reserve and trade-settlement share and modestly denting dollar dominance.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. China loosens capital controls and deepens CNH markets, lifting the yuan's reserve and trade-settlement share and modestly denting dollar dominance. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · China growth ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -1.45–+5.48% |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.26–+0.52% |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.1–+0.49% |
| 4 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.99–+0.73% |
| 5 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.1–+0.29% |
| 6 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.15–+0.36% |
| 7 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.1–+0.2% |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.25–+0.03% |
| 9 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.04–+0.27% |
| 10 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.13–+0.88% |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -7.69–+1.9% |
| 12 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.07–+0.55% |
| 13 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.02–+0.22% |
| 14 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -2.83–+13.32% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 68% | 38 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 71% | 38 | 0.31 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -13.9% | 68% | 38 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.0% | 63% | 38 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +1bp | 64% | 39 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +2bp | 63% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 38 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 61% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.0% | 58% | 38 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +4.5% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.7% | 58% | 38 | 0.13 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |