What if CNH internationalization advances under truce?
A stable US-China backdrop lets Beijing widen yuan trade settlement and swap lines, lifting CNH's global role without disrupting the dollar core.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A stable US-China backdrop lets Beijing widen yuan trade settlement and swap lines, lifting CNH's global role without disrupting the dollar core. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · China growth ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.5% hist -3.39–+11.59% · other way +4.82% (n=12) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.13–+1.4% · other way -5.01% (n=12) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.18–+0.47% · other way +0.62% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -7.75–+2.0% · other way -17.08% (n=8) |
| 5 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.89–+1.02% · other way +0.28% (n=12) |
| 6 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.01–+0.28% · other way -0.19% (n=12) |
| 7 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.36–+7.45% · other way +0.06% (n=8) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.34–+1.34% · other way -11.51% (n=9) |
| 10 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.43–+0.26% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 11 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.33–+0.03% · other way +0.26% (n=12) |
| 12 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.14–+0.3% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 13 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.22–+1.11% · other way -1.56% (n=12) |
| 14 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.34–+1.11% · other way -0.27% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 69% | 38 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +0bp | 70% | 39 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 38 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +1bp | 67% | 38 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.0% · 5d -7.6% | 69% | 38 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 38 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 62% | 38 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 64% | 38 | 0.20 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +10.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 38 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.0% | 56% | 38 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 38 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |