What if Coal and LNG import spike widens India's energy trade gap?
A cold-then-hot demand year forces costly thermal coal and spot LNG imports, widening the energy trade deficit and pressuring the rupee even with Brent contained.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A cold-then-hot demand year forces costly thermal coal and spot LNG imports, widening the energy trade deficit and pressuring the rupee even with Brent contained. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Natural gas ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.3–+0.97% · other way +23.0% (n=11) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.69–+1.55% · other way +5.03% (n=10) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.48–+0.37% · other way +0.35% (n=11) |
| 4 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.05–+0.07% · other way +0.04% (n=11) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.68–+4.39% · other way -0.85% (n=10) |
| 6 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.23–+0.01% · other way -0.27% (n=11) |
| 7 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.9–+4.99% · other way +21.63% (n=10) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.13–+0.25% · other way +1.22% (n=12) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.29–-0.13% · other way +4.63% (n=10) |
| 11 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.24–-0.14% · other way -0.55% (n=11) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.27–+0.03% · other way -0.77% (n=11) |
| 13 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.31–+1.02% · other way +9.47% (n=11) |
| 14 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -3bp hist -3.74–+3.73% · other way +23.9% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 66% | 25 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.3% | 68% | 25 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.3% | 61% | 26 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 27 | 0.14 | · |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.9% ↺ fades | 57% | 25 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.3% | 57% | 26 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 25 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -3.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 26 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 15 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 53% | 25 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 52% | 38 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.4% | 51% | 25 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +2bp | 51% | 36 | 0.01 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 42% | 17 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |