What if sea-level rise strands ports, airports, and coastal infrastructure globally?
Sea-level rise and surge strand ports, airports and coastal infrastructure, raising adaptation costs and impairing related debt in a chronic-physical channel NGFS Phase V incorporates.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Sea-level rise and surge strand ports, airports and coastal infrastructure, raising adaptation costs and impairing related debt in a chronic-physical channel NGFS Phase V incorporates. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.54–+2.15% · other way -4.35% (n=11) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist +-0.0–+0.9% · other way -2.96% (n=11) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.48–+1.47% · other way +27.34% (n=11) |
| 4 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.3–-0.01% · other way -0.33% (n=11) |
| 5 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.31–+0.26% · other way -0.05% (n=11) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.87–+2.02% · other way +6.08% (n=9) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.17–+0.01% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.4–+0.59% · other way +0.38% (n=11) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.58–+1.68% · other way +2.85% (n=11) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.35–+5.83% · other way -6.09% (n=11) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -8.97–+4.01% · other way +16.7% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.62–+0.19% · other way -1.07% (n=12) |
| 13 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.23–+0.56% · other way +15.1% (n=11) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.13–+0.35% · other way +1.69% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.7% | 70% | 40 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.1% | 64% | 36 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 64% | 36 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -9bp · 5d -3bp | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -3.1% | 58% | 36 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -3.2% | 58% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.5% · 5d +1.2% | 55% | 38 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -3bp | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |