What if Cobalt strategic-reserve release caps a DRC-driven spike?
Coordinated releases from US and allied cobalt stockpiles cap a price spike driven by DRC export curbs, stabilizing cathode costs and easing the squeeze on cell makers.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Coordinated releases from US and allied cobalt stockpiles cap a price spike driven by DRC export curbs, stabilizing cathode costs and easing the squeeze on cell makers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Defense spending ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.74–+0.2% · other way +0.68% (n=7) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.93–+1.61% · other way +0.39% (n=7) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.06–+0.79% · other way -1.42% (n=7) |
| 4 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.25–-0.01% · other way +1.59% (n=12) |
| 5 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.19–+0.77% · other way -3.37% (n=7) |
| 6 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.05–+0.1% · other way -0.08% (n=12) |
| 7 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.83–+0.28% · other way -0.19% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.4% | 66% | 27 | 0.30 | · |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 65% | 37 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.1% | 63% | 40 | 0.22 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 24 | 0.19 | · |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.8% | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +8bp | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.4% | 57% | 29 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.2% | 54% | 27 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.7% | 52% | 31 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 51% | 33 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.5% | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 48% | 29 | 0.00 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 47% | 36 | 0.00 | · |