Defense spending
Every scenario in which defense spending is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.
289 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.
54%▲ 1–3 years
What if FY27 $1.5T US defense request cements a multi-year procurement boom?
51%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia's Africa Corps deepens Sahel footprint?
50%▲ 3–10 years
What if NATO commits to 5%-of-GDP by 2035?
50%▲ 1–3 years
What if Defense-prime record backlogs underwrite a decade of revenue visibility?
50%▲ 1–3 years
What if Munitions replenishment drives a 155mm and missile super-cycle?
48%▲ 1–3 years
What if Defense-AI compute orders add a durable accelerator demand stream?
45%▲ 1–3 years
What if European defense-industrial base scales up?
45%▲ 3–10 years
What if Russia rebuilds forces during a frozen-conflict pause?
45%▲ 3–10 years
What if European strategic autonomy in defense takes shape?
45%▲ 1–3 years
What if NATO 5%-of-GDP pledge unleashes European rearmament order wave?
42%▲ 1–3 years
What if Haiti collapse forces a multinational intervention?
41%▼ 1–3 years
What if Russia and Ukraine sign a final peace settlement?
41%▲ 6–18 months
What if Mediator fatigue stalls the Ukraine peace process?
41%▲ 1–3 years
What if European defense ETFs lead a regional bull market?
41%▲ 3–10 years
What if Arctic militarization race lifts Nordic defense?
41%▲ 3–10 years
What if NATO eastern-flank deterrence proves credible?
41%▲ 6–18 months
What if Ethiopia-Eritrea border clash reignites Tigray front?
41%▲ 1–3 years
What if NATO 5%-of-GDP rearmament supercycle?
41%▲ 1–3 years
What if Poland's €43.7bn SAFE loan launches a defense supercycle?
41%▲ 1–3 years
What if Germany Zeitenwende fund scales Rheinmetall into a European champion?
41%▲ 1–3 years
What if Air-and-missile-defense demand drives Patriot/THAAD backlog records?
41%▲ 1–3 years
What if European 'buy-European' defense mandate redirects orders from US primes?
40%▲ 6–18 months
What if Allied munitions surge restocks European arsenals?
40%▲ 1–3 years
What if Venezuela-Guyana clash pulls in US carrier group?
39%▲ 0–6 months
What if China reinstates its antimony export ban?
38%▲ 1–3 years
What if Wider Sahel war draws in coastal militaries?
37%▼ 0–6 months
What if Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the line?
37%▲ 1–3 years
What if EU rearmament unlocks joint defense bonds?
37%▲ 1–3 years
What if Drone and counter-UAS spending mints new defense-tech winners?
37%▲ 1–3 years
What if Indo-Pacific deterrence buildout lifts allied Asian defense budgets?
37%▲ 1–3 years
What if Defense-electronics and C5ISR demand lifts L3Harris and Leidos?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US builds a strategic critical-minerals reserve?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if Western intel warns of a 2027 Russia-NATO window?
36%▲ 1–3 years
What if Europe defense self-reliance boosts EU industrials?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if Golden Dome missile-defense program ignites a space/sensor spending boom?
36%▼ 6–18 months
What if Ukraine ceasefire de-rates European defense stocks from records?
34%▲ 1–3 years
What if MP Materials magnet plant breaks China's NdFeB grip?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if Drone-and-munitions buildout reshapes defense spend?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if Lynas Texas heavy-rare-earth refinery cracks the Dy/Tb chokehold?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if Shipbuilding push funds a US Navy fleet-expansion super-cycle?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if Defense-prime dividend/buyback acceleration rewards the cash-flow story?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if US stockpiles and price floors de-risk rare earths?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if AUKUS submarine pact accelerates Indo-Pacific build?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if Polish defense-import bill blows out the current account?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if South Korea defense-export boom (K9, tanks, jets) scales globally?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if DOGE procurement audit cancels legacy programs and dents primes?
31%▲ 6–18 months
What if US price-floor magnet policy reshores the rare-earth chain?
31%▲ 3–10 years
What if Allied rare-earth alliance pools refining outside China?
30%▼ 1–3 years
What if Peninsula peace dividend reopens Kaesong-style North-South trade?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if Trump freezes Taiwan arms sale as a Xi bargaining chip?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Xi signals 'patience' on reunification, dropping timeline talk?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Energy Fuels scales US rare-earth oxides from monazite?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Europe launches a common-defence Eurobond and floods supply?
28%▼ 3–10 years
What if Cross-strait flights and tourism fully restored under KMT thaw?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Taiwan invasion-fear bid lifts gold and the yen as havens?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Japan defense budget hits 2% of GDP, anchoring deterrence?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if US-Japan-Korea trilateral pact hardens regional deterrence?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if EU lends EUR140bn against frozen Russian assets?
28%▼ 6–18 months
What if Peace deal de-rates Rheinmetall and EU defense?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Quad critical-minerals pact counters China?
28%▲ 3–10 years
What if Space militarization opens a defense-space cycle?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if Détente caps defense spending, peace dividend returns?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Poland defense buildout pushes spending past 4.7% of GDP?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Mountain Pass expansion lifts US light-rare-earth output?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if EU fiscal-capacity deal mutualizes defense and energy borrowing?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Hypersonics and space-warfare programs drive next-gen defense R&D?
28%▼ 6–18 months
What if Middle East ceasefire cools the air-defense and munitions trade?
28%▼ 6–18 months
What if Continuing-resolution gridlock freezes new-start defense programs?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if Defense fixed-price development losses erode prime-contractor margins?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if AUKUS submarine program anchors a multi-decade naval industrial base?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Counter-drone and EW procurement creates new defense winners?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Defense-tech IPO/SPAC revival re-rates the new-entrant cohort?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Defense super-cycle lifts titanium and specialty-materials suppliers?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Germany scraps its debt brake entirely?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if China embargoes tungsten and bismuth exports?
27%▼ 1–3 years
What if US-China codify Taiwan 'no surprises' military protocol?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if Korean defense-export boom outlasts a Peninsula thaw?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if Software-defined entrants undercut legacy primes on cost and speed?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if Military-satellite and launch demand lifts the space-defense cohort?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if Defense M&A and consolidation reshapes the mid-tier supplier landscape?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if Greenland and Brazil monazite deposits open new REE supply?
26%▼ 6–18 months
What if Defense-budget sequestration fears cap the sector's growth multiple?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if Mideast escalation spikes oil and hits airlines while lifting defense?
25%▼ 1–3 years
What if Korea peace process draws record foreign inflows into KOSPI?
25%▼ 6–18 months
What if Defense valuation reset as peace-dividend narrative gains traction?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia-Ukraine war escalates, NATO friction rises?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if China gallium and germanium block hits chip and optics supply?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if US antimony mine restart breaks the import dependence?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if Defense-driven magnet demand tightens the rare-earth market?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if Microreactor deployment for remote and defense sites lifts fuel?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Rare-earth magnet chokepoint halts F-35 and missile production lines?
23%▲ 0–6 months
What if US approves $5B Taiwan arms package; Beijing sanctions primes?
23%▼ 1–3 years
What if Trump-Kim summit yields a 'cold peace' testing freeze?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Nigeria security-spending surge widens the deficit?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if China tungsten export controls squeeze cutting-tool and munitions?
23%▲ 1–3 years
What if Defense-equity bull as rearmament lifts order backlogs?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Inter-Korean military hotline and DMZ de-mining resume?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if China-Japan détente restores the maritime crisis hotline?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Trump-Xi Taiwan understanding caps the 2027 invasion-window fear?
22%▼ 3–10 years
What if Cross-strait integration pact slashes the invasion risk premium?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if China rare-earth snapback hits defense supply?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Arctic resource scramble raises great-power friction?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Grand-bargain US-China detente caps the defense-spending trajectory?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if US aid cutoff opens a 2027 funding cliff?
21%▼ 6–18 months
What if Gaza reconstruction unlocked under truce?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Nile water clash flares over GERD reservoir filling?
21%▲ 0–6 months
What if Defense rearmament lifts industrial-metals demand?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if Cobalt strategic-reserve release caps a DRC-driven spike?
20%▲ 3–10 years
What if a lunar race for helium-3 opens a new frontier?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Myanmar's rare-earth mines collapse in the civil war?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if China-Philippines reach a Second Thomas resupply modus vivendi?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if North Korea backchannel freeze quietly removes the Korea discount?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Europe backfills the US aid gap for Kyiv?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Saudi-Israel grand bargain signed?
20%▼ 3–10 years
What if Multi-year Mideast calm compresses the structural risk premium?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Ethiopia conflict-driven spending undermines the IMF program?
20%▲ 3–10 years
What if Defense indigenization turns India into an arms exporter?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if CEE defense-spending surge widens regional deficits?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if US stockpile build for critical minerals tightens spot markets?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if North Korea declares a testing moratorium for sanctions relief?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if Strategic cobalt stockpiling by the US and EU tightens the spot?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if China rhardens dual-use end-user rules on critical metals?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russian and NATO submarines square off under the Arctic ice?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Trump-Kim deal trades USFK posture for an ICBM freeze?
18%▼ 3–10 years
What if Pacific arms-control dialogue caps a regional missile race?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Ceasefire collapses inside six months?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if German fiscal bazooka funds Ukraine and rearmament?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Baltic hybrid-threat de-escalation accord?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Putin-Trump summit yields a Europe security pact?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Baltic states finish a defensive border wall?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Air-defense breakthrough blunts Russian missiles?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if Iran ballistic salvo overwhelms Israeli defenses?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Syria sectarian war reignites?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Comprehensive regional security framework signed?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia gives North Korea advanced air-defense and jet tech?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Six-Party-style talks restart over North Korea's arsenal?
17%▼ 3–10 years
What if Verified North Korea denuclearization roadmap lifts all of Asia?
17%▼ 3–10 years
What if Asia nuclear-restraint accord curbs a proliferation spiral?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if NATO rearmament stalls on fiscal limits?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Hybrid-war debt-mutualization breaks EU unity?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Arctic Council cooperation resumes, tensions ease?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Ukraine's drone-industrial complex scales exports?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if New START successor revives strategic arms control?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if European troops deploy as a ceasefire tripwire?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Covert Iranian enrichment breakout exposed?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Iran-Israel back-channel de-escalation holds?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Gaza governance deal anchors a wider calm?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Syria stabilization dividend reopens trade?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Wartime-style fiscal expansion lifts DM defense borrowing and yields?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Peace-dividend disinflation: lower defense needs ease price pressure?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Europe's defense-spending surge floods bond markets with new sovereign supply?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if China-Japan Senkaku standoff after a CCG incursion surge?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if AUKUS Pillar-2 expands; China decries a regional arms race?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Front collapses at Pokrovsk after aid lapse?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if POW-and-children exchange thaws negotiations?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gaza truce collapses into a wider war?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Lebanon disarmament deal sidelines Hezbollah?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hezbollah rejects disarmament, north reignites?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Gulf arms super-cycle bids defense names?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if China cuts off antimony and tungsten to the West?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if CEE defense-bond supply wave steepens regional curves?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if EU defense-bond launch reframes higher deficits as growth-positive?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if the US and EU race to stockpile critical minerals but multi-year lead times leave supply chains exposed?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if US 'strategic clarity' pledge to defend Taiwan raises the heat?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Russia transfers SSBN missile-sub tech to North Korea?
15%▲ 3–10 years
What if USFK drawdown pushes Seoul toward nuclear latency?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if North Korea joins a China-Russia bloc in a formal trilateral pact?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if Russian drone incursions over Poland and Romania?
15%▼ 1–3 years
What if Belarus normalization reopens a sanctions off-ramp?
15%▼ 1–3 years
What if Regional peace shifts Gulf budgets from arms to growth?
15%▼ 6–18 months
What if Iran proxy network rolled back across the region?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if Venezuela strikes Stabroek, hitting ExxonMobil oil?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Essequibo annexation push escalates with Guyana?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if US critical-minerals stockpiling tightens copper and PGMs?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if China cuts off all rare-earth magnet exports in a trade rupture?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if North Korea conducts 7th nuclear test, its largest yield yet?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Defense-spending surge widens EU deficits?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if China-Russia Arctic axis deepens?
14%▼ 6–18 months
What if Defense names crash on a sudden peace shock?
14%▼ 6–18 months
What if China brokers a Ukraine ceasefire framework?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if US-Israeli strikes hit Fordow and Natanz?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if Iran-axis proxy surge across three fronts?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if Gulf-Israel defense integration bids missile-defense names?
14%▼ 1–3 years
What if Two-state framework revived under a regional deal?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Iraqi militia attacks resume on US bases and oil?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Ethiopia seizes Assab, war with Eritrea erupts?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Congo-Rwanda clashes risk a regional war?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Eritrea aligns with Egypt-Somalia axis versus Ethiopia?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if geopolitical curbs fragment the aerospace supply chain and squeeze Boeing and Airbus output?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if PLA balloon and drone swarm overflights blanket Taiwan?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia probes the Suwalki corridor?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if Baltic undersea cable cut blacks out a region?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia militarizes the Northern Sea Route?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if BTP-Bund spread blows out on escalation and deficits?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Ceasefire-force deployment draws Russian retaliation?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Belarus deploys Russian nuclear weapons forward?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia escalates the war economy and mobilization?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if European air-defense shortfall exposed by mass strikes?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if China deepens military-industrial backing of Russia?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if US-Europe rift over Ukraine fractures NATO?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if Israel war-cost blowout pressures the shekel?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gaza war escalates into a multi-front Israel war?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Russia intervenes in Transnistria and threatens Moldova?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Germany suspends its debt brake and a big Bund-issuance step-up lifts term premia?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if sustained great-power tension forces European defense budgets toward 3-5% of GDP?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if CCG quarantines Matsu islands; Taipei calls it a soft blockade?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if Hwasong-19 ICBM survives re-entry, ranging all of the US?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Deadly West Sea NLL naval clash off Yeonpyeong?
12%▲ 3–10 years
What if South Korea openly debates its own nuclear deterrent?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if China-India LAC clash reignites in eastern Ladakh?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if Iran races to a crude nuclear device?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if Beirut-Tel Aviv war goes deep and long?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if Turkey-Israel clash over Syria spills over?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if Gulf states drawn directly into an Iran war?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if South China Sea flare-up spikes Philippine risk premium?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if the EU issues large joint defense bonds and periphery spreads widen anyway?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if US defense and entitlement spending push the structural deficit durably higher?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if Germany's debt brake limits counter-cyclical spending and deepens a recession?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if a global rearmament cycle surges demand for titanium, tungsten and rare earths?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if China bans rare-earth magnets for military end-users and disrupts Western missile and jet production?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if controls on drones and dual-use sensors, met by Chinese counter-controls, disrupt defense supply chains?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if synchronized global rearmament drives a defence-spending supercycle?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if China seizes Taiwan's Pratas (Dongsha) atoll?
11%▼ 6–18 months
What if Russian regime change opens a reform window?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia seizes Narva with 'little green men'?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Poland invokes NATO Article 4 over border strikes?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia tests a nuclear-capable system over the Arctic?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia stages a false-flag to justify Baltic action?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Israel strikes Iran without US backing?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if Iran assembles a nuclear arsenal, Gulf goes nuclear?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Syria partitions along sectarian lines?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Tit-for-tat Israel-Iran direct strikes resume?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if North Korea's regime collapses and its nuclear weapons go loose?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if China and India fight a full mountain war in Ladakh?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if Azerbaijan seizes the Zangezur corridor by force?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if China bans exports of all rare-earth magnets?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if France's rearmament spending widens its deficit past 6% of GDP?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if China export controls on antimony and tungsten choke Western munitions supply chains?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if North Korea tests a tactical nuke for short-range missiles?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if North Korea demonstrates a MIRV warhead bus on its ICBM?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if North Korean artillery hits a South Korean border island?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if North Korea GPS-jams South Korean airspace and shipping?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if China builds artificial structures on Scarborough Shoal?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Israeli strikes deep in Syria draw Turkish ire?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if West Bank flares into a third intifada?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if Thai-Cambodia border conflict spikes regional risk premium?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China re-imposes its gallium and germanium export ban?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if Russian troops cross into Poland and trigger Article 5?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if China lands forces on the Japan-administered Senkakus?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if a UK defense-spending surge toward 3% of GDP lifts the gilt term premium?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if defense and transition issuance structurally re-rates the Bund term premium higher?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if a Russia-NATO incident raises European war-risk premia and energy prices?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if an accelerating Indo-Pacific arms race widens fiscal deficits?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if great-power competition over Arctic routes and resources escalates?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if CCG water cannon injures Philippine sailors at Ayungin?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if North Korea ICBM overflies Japan, triggering J-Alert sirens?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if China-Japan Senkaku clash bids the JPY but tanks the Nikkei?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hezbollah opens a full northern front on Israel?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China imposes full rare-earth & magnet embargo?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China antimony export curb spikes prices over 2,600%?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China samarium export halt grounds defense magnet supply?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China critical-metals export-control escalation rattles markets?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if Russia militarizes Svalbard and tests Norway's NATO guarantee?
8%▲ Tail risk
What if a city-killer asteroid skims past inside the Moon's orbit?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if heavy sovereign supply collapses the green-bond greenium?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if an attack on commercial satellites degrades global connectivity and navigation?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if conflict on NATO's eastern flank triggers Article 5 mobilization and a European risk-off shock?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fatal China-Japan air-sea incident near the Senkakus?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if North Korea high-altitude nuclear test over the Pacific?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if a missile on NATO soil triggers Article 5?
7%▲ 0–6 months
What if a fire halts America's only rare-earth refinery?
7%▲ 0–6 months
What if Russian jets shoot down a NATO aircraft over the Baltic?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if North Korea shells Seoul's suburbs?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if the PLA seizes territory in Arunachal Pradesh?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if Russia detonates a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if South Korea quits the NPT and goes nuclear?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if China's robotic satellite disables a US spy satellite in orbit?
7%▲ 3–10 years
What if US and Chinese spacecraft square off near the Moon?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if Filipino sailor killed at Second Thomas; MDT Article IV invoked?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if Limited PLA-Philippine firefight at a contested Spratly reef?
7%▲ 0–6 months
What if North Korea satellite launch doubles as an ICBM provocation?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if Russia grabs the Suwalki corridor to reach Kaliningrad?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if Russian and NATO forces trade fire at Estonia's border?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if Saudi Arabia buys nuclear warheads from Pakistan?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if North Korea sinks a South Korean patrol boat in the West Sea?
5%▲ Tail risk
What if North Korea detonates a nuclear EMP over South Korea's grid?
5%▲ 1–3 years
What if India strikes China's mega-dam on the Brahmaputra?
5%▲ Tail risk
What if militants seize a Pakistani nuclear warhead?
4%▲ 0–6 months
What if a rival jams and blinds US GPS satellites?