What if Colombia coffee export windfall on a price spike?
A global Arabica shortfall lifts coffee prices and Colombia's export earnings, adding dollars that support the peso and rural incomes.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A global Arabica shortfall lifts coffee prices and Colombia's export earnings, adding dollars that support the peso and rural incomes. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.36–+1.48% · other way +0.73% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.55–+1.3% · other way -2.8% (n=11) |
| 3 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.09–+0.29% · other way +0.86% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.0–+8.3% · other way +14.67% (n=12) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.31–+2.92% · other way -3.36% (n=11) |
| 7 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.51–+0.26% · other way -0.66% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.72–+0.44% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.58–+1.47% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.59–+0.26% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +7bp | 66% | 40 | 0.28 | · |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 39 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | +-0.0% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.10 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -7.5% | 55% | 38 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.0% | 55% | 39 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.8% | 55% | 39 | 0.07 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 53% | 38 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 52% | 39 | 0.04 | · |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d +0.9% ↺ fades | 48% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.2% | 43% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +8.0% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 48% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 50% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 48% | 40 | 0.00 | · |