Colombia — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Colombia and its globally‑connected markets.
36 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.
42%1–3 years
What if Colombia orthodox-successor rally re-rates COP and bonds?
30%6–18 months
What if Colombia fiscal-rule rescue restores the deficit anchor?
29%6–18 months
What if LatAm real-rate carry basket draws record inflows?
28%1–3 years
What if Colombia oil-investment reopening rebuilds reserves?
28%6–18 months
What if BanRep easing cycle revives a Colombian peso carry?
28%1–3 years
What if Colombia energy-transition FDI offsets oil decline?
26%3–10 years
What if LatAm green-hydrogen export corridor draws clean-energy capital?
25%1–3 years
What if Colombia's no-new-oil policy hollows out reserves?
24%0–6 months
What if a court ruling forces a costly redesign of Colombia's pensions?
24%6–18 months
What if Colombia coffee export windfall on a price spike?
24%1–3 years
What if Colombia loses its last investment-grade rating?
22%6–18 months
What if Colombia breaches its fiscal rule, spooking COP bonds?
20%0–6 months
What if Colombian coffee rust and rains deepen the Arabica deficit?
19%1–3 years
What if Colombia's peace deal collapses into full insurgency?
19%6–18 months
What if Coffee-and-sugar price spike lifts Brazil and Colombia FX?
18%0–6 months
What if Colombia Ecopetrol dividend cut hits the budget and COP?
18%6–18 months
What if Colombia populist agenda spooks foreign bond holders?
18%6–18 months
What if Venezuela migration wave strains Colombia and Peru fiscally?
17%0–6 months
What if Colombia suspends its fiscal rule and the peso slides past 4800?
17%1–3 years
What if the TR4 fungus reaches Latin America's banana plantations?
17%1–3 years
What if Colombia pension-and-labor reform clouds growth outlook?
17%1–3 years
What if Twin LatAm downgrades of Colombia and Ecuador hit EM credit?
17%6–18 months
What if Heterodox-policy turn in two big LatAm economies spooks markets?
15%6–18 months
What if Colombia-Venezuela border flares with armed groups?
15%6–18 months
What if Brent slump drains Colombia's oil-dependent reserves?
15%6–18 months
What if WTI glut squeezes LatAm oil-exporter budgets and currencies?
15%6–18 months
What if Colombia reform clash widens COP spread on fiscal worry?
13%6–18 months
What if fiscal uncertainty and oil weakness drive a sharp Colombian peso sell-off?
9%1–3 years
What if Colombia breaches its fiscal rule and risks losing its investment-grade rating?
9%1–3 years
What if a low-oil shock strains Ecuador and Colombia's fiscal positions and pressures their currencies?
9%6–18 months
What if a low-oil shock triggers correlated capital outflows from Nigeria, Colombia and Angola?
8%6–18 months
What if a sustained oil-price drop widens Colombia's current-account gap and weakens the peso?
8%1–3 years
What if a Colombian sovereign downgrade triggers forced index-fund selling of peso bonds?
7%1–3 years
What if South Africa, Colombia and Hungary face a cluster of downgrades?
6%6–18 months
What if Colombia's tax reform spooks investors and weakens the peso?
5%0–6 months
What if a sharp oil-price drop sends the Colombian peso plunging?