Colombia — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Colombia and its globally‑connected markets.
36 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries the published odds and markets it could move; a market comparison appears when a matching market is available.
42%1–3 years
What if Colombia orthodox-successor rally re-rates COP and bonds?
30%6–18 months
What if Colombia fiscal-rule rescue restores the deficit anchor?
29%6–18 months
What if LatAm real-rate carry basket draws record inflows?
28%6–18 months
What if BanRep easing cycle revives a Colombian peso carry?
28%1–3 years
What if Colombia energy-transition FDI offsets oil decline?
28%1–3 years
What if Colombia oil-investment reopening rebuilds reserves?
26%1–3 years
What if Colombia's no-new-oil policy hollows out reserves?
26%3–10 years
What if LatAm green-hydrogen export corridor draws clean-energy capital?
24%6–18 months
What if Colombia coffee export windfall on a price spike?
24%1–3 years
What if Colombia loses its last investment-grade rating?
24%0–6 months
What if a court ruling forces a costly redesign of Colombia's pensions?
22%6–18 months
What if Colombia breaches its fiscal rule, spooking COP bonds?
20%0–6 months
What if Colombian coffee rust and rains deepen the Arabica deficit?
20%6–18 months
What if Venezuela migration wave strains Colombia and Peru fiscally?
19%6–18 months
What if Coffee-and-sugar price spike lifts Brazil and Colombia FX?
19%1–3 years
What if Colombia's peace deal collapses into full insurgency?
18%0–6 months
What if Colombia Ecopetrol dividend cut hits the budget and COP?
18%6–18 months
What if Colombia populist agenda spooks foreign bond holders?
17%1–3 years
What if Colombia pension-and-labor reform clouds growth outlook?
17%0–6 months
What if Colombia suspends its fiscal rule and the peso slides past 4800?
17%6–18 months
What if Heterodox-policy turn in two big LatAm economies spooks markets?
17%1–3 years
What if the TR4 fungus reaches Latin America's banana plantations?
17%1–3 years
What if Twin LatAm downgrades of Colombia and Ecuador hit EM credit?
16%6–18 months
What if Colombia reform clash widens COP spread on fiscal worry?
15%6–18 months
What if Brent slump drains Colombia's oil-dependent reserves?
15%6–18 months
What if Colombia-Venezuela border flares with armed groups?
15%6–18 months
What if WTI glut squeezes LatAm oil-exporter budgets and currencies?
13%6–18 months
What if fiscal uncertainty and oil weakness drive a sharp Colombian peso sell-off?
9%1–3 years
What if Colombia breaches its fiscal rule and risks losing its investment-grade rating?
9%1–3 years
What if a low-oil shock strains Ecuador and Colombia's fiscal positions and pressures their currencies?
9%6–18 months
What if a low-oil shock triggers correlated capital outflows from Nigeria, Colombia and Angola?
8%1–3 years
What if a Colombian sovereign downgrade triggers forced index-fund selling of peso bonds?
8%6–18 months
What if a sustained oil-price drop widens Colombia's current-account gap and weakens the peso?
7%1–3 years
What if South Africa, Colombia and Hungary face a cluster of downgrades?
6%6–18 months
What if Colombia's tax reform spooks investors and weakens the peso?
5%0–6 months
What if a sharp oil-price drop sends the Colombian peso plunging?