What if Colombia suspends its fiscal rule and the peso slides past 4800?
Suspending the fiscal rule invites a Moody's downgrade and a COP slide past 4800 — a local credit and currency repricing. Rhymes with Colombia's May-2021 S&P downgrade to junk after the fiscal-rule credibility broke. Oil receipts and US portfolio money fund the deficit; the forward angle is that under Petro the fiscal-rule suspension is a deliberate policy stance, not a one-off shock, so the term premium re-rates structurally rather than transiently.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Bogota suspends its fiscal rule, prompting a Moody's downgrade and a peso slide past 4800/USD. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.