What if Commodity disinflation glut: metals and grains slump cools input costs?
A broad commodity glut in metals and grains slashes input costs, accelerating goods disinflation and boosting downstream margins and consumer real incomes.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A broad commodity glut in metals and grains slashes input costs, accelerating goods disinflation and boosting downstream margins and consumer real incomes. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▼ · Food inflation ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.92–+0.06% · other way -2.21% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.82–+1.49% · other way +4.67% (n=5) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.32–-0.09% · other way -4.4% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.65–+2.15% · other way -2.25% (n=5) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.53–+14.12% · other way -2.57% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.12–+0.26% · other way +0.72% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.89–+1.07% · other way +8.54% (n=12) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.02–+0.21% · other way +0.78% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.4–+3.44% · other way +2.64% (n=7) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -4.95–+10.44% · other way -5.5% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.2–+0.91% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.9–+12.33% · other way -9.52% (n=3) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.44–+1.19% · other way +0.42% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 72% | 38 | 0.33 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.1% | 64% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +12.7% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +4bp | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.6% · 5d +2.2% | 56% | 37 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.2% | 56% | 38 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -7.3% | 56% | 37 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -4.3% | 56% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.0% | 56% | 39 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 37 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 53% | 38 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |