What if Commodity-supercycle inflation: broad raw-material bid lifts CPI?
Synchronized underinvestment across energy, metals and agriculture drives a commodity supercycle that feeds durable cost-push inflation and rotates leadership to real assets.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Synchronized underinvestment across energy, metals and agriculture drives a commodity supercycle that feeds durable cost-push inflation and rotates leadership to real assets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Copper ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -3.83–+2.71% · other way +7.57% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -3.09–+1.7% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.29–+1.11% · other way +21.27% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.47–+0.31% · other way +1.25% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.45–+4.35% · other way -6.23% (n=9) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.73–+0.49% · other way +1.94% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.65–+0.09% · other way +9.98% (n=9) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.41–+2.31% · other way +2.96% (n=9) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -2.33–+8.56% · other way +4.9% (n=12) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.01–+8.94% · other way -9.52% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -1.39–+6.3% · other way +4.2% (n=12) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -1.54–+0.61% · other way +2.72% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.09–+0.85% · other way +22.18% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 24 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +8.1% · 5d +10.6% | 73% | 15 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -6.6% · 5d -1.4% | 71% | 14 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -1.1% | 71% | 14 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.5% | 64% | 14 | 0.27 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -1.7% | 64% | 14 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -2.9% | 60% | 10 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -4.0% | 62% | 8 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 67% | 3 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -1.9% | 57% | 14 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 57% | 14 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.1% · 5d -4.9% ↺ fades | 57% | 7 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.6% | 53% | 24 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -3.1% | 50% | 14 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |