What if commodity merchants simultaneously draw bank credit lines to meet margin?
Commodity merchants simultaneously draw bank credit lines to meet margin in a price spike, transmitting commodity stress into bank funding markets.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Commodity merchants simultaneously draw bank credit lines to meet margin in a price spike, transmitting commodity stress into bank funding markets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · European energy ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.29–+0.01% · other way +1.41% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.97–+0.11% · other way +0.42% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.77–+0.58% · other way +14.05% (n=12) |
| 4 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.66–+0.07% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.75–+0.13% · other way -0.06% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.42–+0.28% · other way +0.46% (n=12) |
| 7 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.44–+0.0% · other way -0.72% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -5.07–+2.14% · other way +8.03% (n=10) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.52–+3.99% · other way -10.27% (n=12) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -11.18–+5.6% · other way -3.3% (n=10) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.87–+1.82% · other way +5.07% (n=10) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.23–+5.26% · other way +19.89% (n=9) |
| 13 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.18–+0.39% · other way -0.41% (n=12) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.62–+1.73% · other way +0.22% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.2% | 77% | 29 | 0.47 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.9% · 5d -13.9% | 72% | 12 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +5.5% · 5d +2.3% | 67% | 12 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -5.3% | 67% | 15 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.7% | 64% | 32 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 32 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.6% | 62% | 37 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.3% | 56% | 30 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.2% | 55% | 32 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.6% · 5d +2.8% | 55% | 33 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -7.3% | 55% | 13 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -12bp · 5d -3bp | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.3% | 53% | 36 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |