What if a major firm ships a general-purpose home robot?
A capable consumer home robot at scale is a softer version of the humanoid-capex pull: Nvidia/semis and Tesla rise on edge-AI demand, with mild disinflation. Analogue is the 2023-24 AI rerating, though consumer-robot ship dates have historically slipped (the under-delivery risk). Forward angle: consumer adoption is gated by safety/liability and price, not compute, so the cascade likely overstates the near-term semi pull — treat as optionality, not a dated catalyst.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A major firm ships a capable general-purpose home robot at consumer scale. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.