What if a contaminated vaccine lot causes infant deaths?
A contaminated vaccine lot killing infants collapses immunization confidence in one country — a localized public-health and vaccine-maker event, not a global mobility/oil shock; the crude cascade is too broad. Rhymes with the 2019 Samoa MMR crisis and India's DPT-scare episodes, which hit campaigns and confidence, not crude. Spillover is a small risk-off wobble plus pressure on the implicated manufacturer.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Contaminated vaccine lot causes infant deaths in a large country, collapsing vaccine confidence and halting immunization campaigns. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ · Pandemic shock ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -9.88–+0.61% · other way +3.31% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.31–+0.13% · other way +12.12% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -8.18–+1.92% · other way +0.81% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.45–+0.77% · other way +0.13% (n=12) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -7.1–+1.49% · other way +1.74% (n=12) |
| 7 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.49–+0.25% · other way -0.51% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.78–+1.16% · other way +2.9% (n=12) |
| 9 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.25–+0.67% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
| 10 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.0–+0.78% · other way +0.14% (n=12) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -5.25–+10.95% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.54–+0.47% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.38–+1.27% · other way +0.97% (n=12) |
| 14 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.47–+1.16% · other way +0.7% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust history-short on UAL/DAL: airlines crater in a deadly-pathogen scare; the -14% is clean on-channel COVID-2020 evidence, the cascade's contrarian long ignores the demand-shock transmission.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -2.0% | 79% | 40 | 0.56 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -7.6% · 5d -3.1% | 79% | 40 | 0.50 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.1% | 74% | 40 | 0.48 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -1.9% | 68% | 40 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -4.3% | 69% | 39 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.0% · 5d -6.4% | 67% | 36 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 40 | 0.25 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -3.6% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.2% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.2% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.6% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d 0bp | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.0% | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
Why this probability
Contaminated-lot infant deaths recur historically in LMICs; confidence-collapsing event within 6mo modest. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.