What if a contaminated vaccine lot causes infant deaths?
A contaminated vaccine lot killing infants collapses immunization confidence in one country — a localized public-health and vaccine-maker event, not a global mobility/oil shock; the crude cascade is too broad. Rhymes with the 2019 Samoa MMR crisis and India's DPT-scare episodes, which hit campaigns and confidence, not crude. Spillover is a small risk-off wobble plus pressure on the implicated manufacturer.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Contaminated vaccine lot causes infant deaths in a large country, collapsing vaccine confidence and halting immunization campaigns. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ · Pandemic shock ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.