What if a contested US election sparks a constitutional crisis?
A contested US election attacks the reserve asset itself, so the tell is the long end selling (30y/10y +4bp) alongside gold and bitcoin bid as dollar-confidence hedges — equities fall but Treasuries do NOT rally, the classic 'sell-America' signature. Rhymes with the Aug 2011 US debt-ceiling/downgrade episode, where stocks fell yet the dollar-and-Treasury haven trade frayed. Forward angle: a true constitutional crisis breaks the reflexive flight-to-Treasuries assumption, making gold and BTC the cleaner hedges than USTs.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A contested US election triggers a constitutional crisis and civil unrest. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Volatility (VIX) ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.4% hist +0.95–+4.6% · other way +3.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.5% hist -1.61–-0.83% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.26–-0.28% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.01–-0.54% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 5 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.21–+2.35% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.84–+0.26% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.75–-0.1% · other way +4.75% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.24–+3.95% · other way +26.92% (n=12) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.82–+0.17% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 10 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.3–+3.64% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 11 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -5.51–+1.3% · other way +2.73% (n=12) |
| 12 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.43–+0.55% · other way +2.51% (n=12) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.55–-0.28% · other way +1.61% (n=12) |
| 14 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.42–-0.2% · other way +0.41% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +13.6% · 5d +3.2% | 68% | 9 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 66% | 25 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.5% · 5d +0.0% | 65% | 23 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -1.2% | 63% | 31 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +1.4% ↺ fades | 64% | 25 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.5% | 64% | 32 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 26 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.0% | 63% | 27 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -6.6% | 61% | 15 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 27 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.0% | 58% | 26 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.7% | 56% | 26 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +1bp | 56% | 36 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 57% | 32 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Contested-election constitutional crisis possible but 2024 passed; next federal cycle outside core window. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.