What if EU bans Russian LNG, JKM and TTF tighten?
Brussels phases out remaining Russian pipeline and LNG imports, stranding Yamal volumes and tightening the global gas market as the EU bids US LNG, lifting both TTF and Asian JKM.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
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Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Brussels phases out remaining Russian pipeline and LNG imports, stranding Yamal volumes and tightening the global gas market as the EU bids US LNG, lifting both TTF and Asian JKM. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.