What if Coordinated EM easing reflates global trade and commodity demand?
A wave of EM rate cuts boosts domestic demand across the developing world, lifting global growth and industrial-metals demand in a broad risk-on reflation that firms EM currencies.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A wave of EM rate cuts boosts domestic demand across the developing world, lifting global growth and industrial-metals demand in a broad risk-on reflation that firms EM currencies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · FX carry appetite ▲ · Global growth ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.8% hist -5.12–+0.81% · other way +0.13% (n=10) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.64–+2.02% · other way +20.37% (n=7) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.82–+0.96% · other way +12.52% (n=11) |
| 4 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.68–+0.53% · other way +0.81% (n=10) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.46–+2.14% · other way +6.19% (n=8) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.01–+0.68% · other way +1.53% (n=11) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.02–+0.35% · other way +8.18% (n=8) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.38–+0.14% · other way -7.13% (n=11) |
| 10 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.57–+1.22% · other way +7.77% (n=11) |
| 11 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.15–+0.14% · other way -0.39% (n=10) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.16–+0.84% · other way +0.65% (n=10) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.13–+0.8% · other way +0.13% (n=12) |
| 14 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.47–+1.35% · other way +8.07% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -0.3% | 74% | 31 | 0.47 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -1.4% | 75% | 32 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 71% | 31 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 31 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.9% | 65% | 40 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -1.6% | 64% | 36 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 31 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.5% | 61% | 31 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 30 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.5% | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -3.1% | 61% | 38 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.5% | 59% | 34 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.6% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| KR200 KR200 | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.3% | 58% | 36 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |