What if the G7 jointly devalues an overvalued dollar?
A Plaza-style coordinated dollar takedown sells DXY, steepens the Treasury long end (foreign reserve managers pull duration) and bids gold/EUR. The 1985 Plaza Accord did exactly this: DXY fell ~50% over two years and the yen/DM ripped. Forward twist: unlike 1985, today's holders are EM central banks already diversifying into gold, so a managed devaluation could overshoot into a disorderly reserve exit rather than the orderly G7-engineered glide of the 1980s.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Major central banks jointly intervene to weaken an overvalued dollar in a Plaza-style accord, repricing global FX and rates. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.