US dollar (DXY)
Every scenario in which us dollar (dxy) is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.
305 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.
49%▼ 1–3 years
What if Central-bank gold super-surge tops 1,300t/yr?
42%▲ 1–3 years
What if GENIUS-Act dollar stablecoins entrench USD online?
42%▲ 6–18 months
What if ECB front-loads cuts as eurozone disinflation outpaces forecasts?
36%▲ 1–3 years
What if Dollar smile reasserts: DXY rebounds on haven demand?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if Hawkish dot-plot surprise: median path lifts the terminal rate?
35%▼ 1–3 years
What if Structural dollar-bear cycle sparks a broad EM-FX renaissance?
34%▲ 0–6 months
What if the ECB cuts rates ahead of the Fed?
31%▼ 1–3 years
What if Weak-dollar regime fuels a sweeping LatAm FX rally?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed-cut dollar downcycle reopens EM portfolio-inflow taps?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if BOJ guides a stronger yen, easing imported-inflation pressure calmly?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed dovish surprise sinks the dollar and ignites a global risk rally?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed's preferred PCE undershoots, greenlighting a cutting cycle?
30%▲ 0–6 months
What if DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drain?
30%▼ 3–10 years
What if De-dollarization reshapes EM reserve management and trade invoicing?
30%▼ 6–18 months
What if Goldilocks easing weakens the dollar and lifts the whole EM-FX bloc?
30%▼ 6–18 months
What if Cheap-oil disinflation lets the Fed cut faster?
30%▼ 6–18 months
What if DXY softens as a crude glut cools US inflation?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if Broad EM disinflation plus a soft dollar delivers a goldilocks-EM regime?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed framework review drops average-inflation-targeting for a clean 2%?
27%▼ 1–3 years
What if Reserve diversification pushes USD share below 55%?
27%▼ 6–18 months
What if ECB-Fed divergence lifts EUR toward 1.20?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if Risk-off dollar spike on geopolitical shock?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if A surging dollar (DXY) drags the rupee through RBI defenses?
27%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed-dovish pivot revives the EM real-rate carry advantage?
27%▼ 6–18 months
What if Dollar top confirmation kicks off a multi-quarter EM-FX uptrend?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if Restored dollar confidence after a US deal reverses the gold bid?
26%▼ 1–3 years
What if Weak-dollar reflation lets EM central banks rebuild buffers cheaply?
26%▲ 0–6 months
What if Risk-off dollar spike triggers broad EM-FX intervention?
26%▼ 1–3 years
What if Falling DXY and stable commodities deliver an EM real-income boost?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fed signals a higher neutral rate (r-star), repricing the long end?
25%▲ 0–6 months
What if Mexican peso carry unwind as the Fed-Banxico gap narrows?
25%▼ 1–3 years
What if Petrodollar recycling shift trims structural dollar demand from EM?
25%▼ 1–3 years
What if Dollar-bloc breakaway lets EM cut rates without sinking the currency?
25%▼ 6–18 months
What if EM central bank pivots to easing as the Fed cuts, fueling carry?
25%▲ 6–18 months
What if SNB cuts to zero and resumes FX sales to cap franc strength?
24%▲ 0–6 months
What if Offshore dollar-funding squeeze hits EM swap lines and basis?
24%▲ 0–6 months
What if DXY jumps on an oil-shock dash-for-dollars?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if BOJ pauses normalization, re-anchoring a stable, risk-on carry regime?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if A reform-minded Fed Board reasserts independence, firming the dollar?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if BoE cuts into sticky UK services inflation, weakening sterling?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if ECB reaffirms inflation-fighting independence, firming the euro?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if the yuan breaks 7.5 per dollar and triggers a capital-outflow spiral?
23%▼ 3–10 years
What if Multipolar reserve order erodes dollar primacy?
23%▼ 1–3 years
What if Sustained dollar weakness funds an EM capex-and-FX upcycle?
23%▼ 1–3 years
What if Twin-deficit dollar erosion structurally lifts the EM-FX basket?
23%▼ 1–3 years
What if EM central bank diversifies reserves into gold over Treasuries?
23%▼ 3–10 years
What if China's e-CNY scales cross-border, chipping at dollar invoicing?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed hawkish surprise drives a dollar wrecking-ball across EM?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if LatAm central banks out-ease the Fed, narrowing carry buffers?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if Dollar-liquidity drain spikes EM cross-currency basis into year-end?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if Powell presser walks back market easing bets in a hawkish pivot?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if PBOC engineers a managed yuan devaluation to export disinflation?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Central banks slow gold buying as dollar credibility is restored?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Restored Fed independence compresses the US term premium?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if EM corporate dollar-debt wall meets a strong-dollar refinancing squeeze?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Reserve-manager dollar-share cut quietly supports the EM-FX bid?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Post-Powell chair: a credible inflation hawk reanchors expectations?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fed hardens its anti-inflation mandate after a credibility scare?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if BOJ normalization lures Japanese savings home, draining global duration?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if ECB-Fed divergence drives the euro toward parity with the dollar?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Reserve managers rotate from USD into euros and gold?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Strong-dollar squeeze triggers a broad LatAm FX selloff?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Dollar-smile melt-up drains EM FX as both tails bid the buck?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Reserve fire-sale of Treasuries by EMs lifts US yields and the dollar?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Global central-bank gold buying accelerates on dollar-trust erosion?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if capital flight overwhelms China's controls and drains FX reserves?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if DXY surge on Fed hawkish pivot squeezes the peso?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if Dollar-shortage doom-loop forces synchronized EM reserve liquidation?
19%▲ 0–6 months
What if DXY break above cycle highs forces a defensive EM rate-hike wave?
19%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hidden $80tn FX-swap dollar debt can't roll, basis blows out?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if BOJ-Fed policy divergence widens, supercharging the yen carry trade?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if PBOC shifts to a stronger yuan-fixing regime to curb outflows?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if PBOC defends the yuan with offshore liquidity squeeze and bill sales?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed's preferred PCE re-accelerates, killing the cut narrative?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Plaza-style accord engineers a weaker dollar?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Dollar downcycle supercharges CEE and frontier carry?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Reserve-asset diversification by EMs trims structural Treasury demand?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if Cross-currency basis inversion signals an EM dollar-funding crunch?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if US 'twin deficits' scare drives a simultaneous bond and dollar sell-off?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sticky global services inflation forces central banks to re-tighten?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if the cross-currency basis blows out and swap lines reopen?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if PBoC easing widens the China-US rate gap and accelerates yuan outflows?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Korean won breaches 1,500 per dollar on capital outflows and a hawkish Fed?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if A strong dollar squeezes Pakistan's dollar-debt service?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Strong dollar squeezes CEE and Central Asian FX together?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Dollar squeeze: surging DXY triggers frontier FX dominoes?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Reserve-currency flight to the dollar empties EM FX buffers fast?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Fed-hawkish repricing drains EM-FX through the real-rate channel?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Stagflationary dollar-up shock is the worst case for EM-FX?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Dovish pivot reflation: Fed declares victory, financial conditions ease?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Financial-conditions easing impulse: looser FCI front-runs cuts?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if RBA holds hawkish as Australian inflation proves stubborn?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed wage-spiral fear forces a hawkish hold despite cooling CPI?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if the DXY surges above 115 and crushes emerging-market currencies?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if Safe-haven dollar bid overwhelms EM fundamentals in a flight episode?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if Dollar-bull breakout triggers an EM-FX correlation crash lower?
16%▼ 1–3 years
What if Dollar-confidence wobble lifts gold as a Treasury alternative?
16%▼ 1–3 years
What if Dollar downcycle reflation: weaker USD eases global liquidity?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed swap lines reactivated to quell a global dollar-funding squeeze?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if SNB intervention to weaken the franc fails as haven flows surge?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if a flight-to-safety surge drives the dollar index above 120?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Indonesian rupiah breaks past 18,500 per dollar in a sudden capital stop?
15%▼ 6–18 months
What if Disorderly dollar drop on twin-deficit panic?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if Cross-currency basis blowout traps EM corporates short dollars?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if EM hard-currency primary market freezes shut in a dollar squeeze?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if No-swap-line EMs left exposed in a global dollar-funding freeze?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if Dollar-funding doom-loop forces an EM into emergency capital controls?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if Year-end EUR/USD cross-currency basis gaps to -150bp?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if Japanese lifers' dollar-asset hedge roll detonates JPY basis?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if a global risk-off triggers a broad EM sudden stop similar to the 2013 taper tantrum?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if capital flight via crypto rails undermines China's currency controls?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if Tariff-passthrough deflation offset: strong dollar caps import prices?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM dollar-funding squeeze freezes Asian trade-finance lines?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if a strong dollar and weak China demand drive the ringgit to multi-decade lows?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if the peg forces HIBOR sharply higher and squeezes Hong Kong's funding?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if a sharp euro depreciation re-ignites euro-area goods inflation?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if the euro falls back below parity with the dollar?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if the ringgit slides 20% on portfolio outflows and a surging dollar?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if uninsured deposits flee CRE-heavy regional banks in a repeat of March 2023?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Asia-Pacific private-credit markets face their first downturn as dollar funding tightens?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if a global risk-off triggers capital flight and rupiah weakness in Indonesia?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if the yuan breaks 8.0 per dollar in a disorderly slide?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if a Chinese financial crisis triggers a global flight to safety?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if markets stop trusting the PBoC's daily yuan-fixing as a depreciation anchor?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if a dollar-funding squeeze widens Korea's cross-currency basis and forces a Fed swap-line request?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if capital outflows push the Hong Kong dollar to its weak-side 7.85 peg limit, spiking HIBOR?
12%▼ 6–18 months
What if Second G7 reserve seizure triggers USD-confidence loss?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Dollar wrecking-ball deflation: surging DXY tightens global conditions?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if Fed reopens central-bank swap lines, dollar squeeze fades fast?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if FX-swap and repo stress feed each other in a dollar doom-loop?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if Fed delivers a surprise 50bp cut to get ahead of the curve?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if BOJ intervenes to defend a sliding yen past a line in the sand?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if Coordinated US-Japan FX intervention defends the yen at extremes?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if the G7 jointly devalues an overvalued dollar?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if FHLB curbs on CRE-concentrated banks tighten their contingent funding?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if Sweden raises the CRE risk-weight floor for bank capital?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if the rand crashes more than 20% and forces the SARB into a defensive rate hike?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a strong dollar and weaker remittances squeeze Philippine banks' FX liquidity?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if capital flight pushes China toward a balance-of-payments deficit?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a twin deficit shock sends sterling toward 1.10 against the dollar?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a sharp won-yen cross move disrupts Korean exporters' competitiveness versus Japan?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a global risk-off episode triggers a sudden stop in foreign portfolio flows to India?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a broad dollar funding squeeze hits Asia-ex-China banks simultaneously?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if a strong dollar and wide spreads trigger an EM corporate refinancing crunch?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a Brazilian fiscal scare collapses the real carry trade past 6.50/USD?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if the Mexican peso carry trade unwinds past 22/USD?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a surging dollar pushes EM sovereign dollar debt toward distress?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if higher-for-longer Fed rates grind EM FX and dollar-debt costs steadily worse?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if BRICS gold-backed settlement unit launches?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if Stealth tightening: conditions tighten without any rate hikes?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Sticky-inflation taper tantrum: cut hopes dashed, EM FX sells off?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Quarter-end dollar squeeze spikes SOFR-OIS and FX basis together?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if FX-swap basis dislocation strands non-US bank dollar books?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if US community banks sharply cut CRE lending to preserve capital?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if the Indian rupee slides to record lows and forces heavy RBI reserve intervention?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Philippine peso slides toward record lows and forces BSP intervention?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if a dollar surge squeezes EM dollar funding and forces reserve drawdowns across emerging markets?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if China abandons its managed float and lets the yuan fall freely?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if sustained capital flight drains China's reserves toward critical levels?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a double-digit fall in sterling drives UK import prices and CPI sharply higher?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Korean won slides disorderly toward 1,600 per dollar on a foreign equity-outflow stampede?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if a dollar-funding scramble drives the EUR/USD cross-currency basis to -150bp?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if BRL, MXN, ZAR and IDR sell off together as carry baskets unwind?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if dollar pressure pushes USD/CNY past 7.50 and revives devaluation fears?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a US inflation surprise forces the Fed to re-hike and spikes the dollar?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if the ECB imposes higher CRE risk weights and forces euro-area banks to delever?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if project-finance losses trigger a run on Korean savings banks?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if a US yield surge sparks a taper-tantrum-style rupiah sell-off like 2013?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if a disorderly yuan devaluation triggers 1997-style Asian currency contagion?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if sterling trades at a persistent stagflation discount and amplifies UK import costs?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if a weaker pound and higher crude lift UK pump prices to record levels?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if a weak pound and poor harvests drive UK food inflation sharply higher?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if persistent rupee defense erodes India's import-cover ratio and sparks reserve anxiety?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if a hawkish Fed surprise gaps the rupee weaker through the RBI's tolerance band?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if Singapore's three major banks face a foreign-currency liquidity squeeze in a dollar shortage?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if a hawkish Fed surprise hits the rupiah hardest among ASEAN currencies?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if a hawkish Fed drives outflows from Malaysia's open bond market and spikes yields?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if a synchronized sudden stop drives capital out of Korea, India, Indonesia and Malaysia at once?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if a Fed surprise and dollar surge cascade through Asian currencies all at once?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if currency depreciation triggers FX-mismatch defaults across EM corporates?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if rising US rates and regional risk premia widen Asian IG dollar bonds?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if a strong dollar and high rates trigger a broad EM corporate default wave?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if South Africa's rand carry unwinds as fiscal slippage deepens?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if rising US yields trigger an Indonesian rupiah carry unwind past 17,000?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if a strong dollar tips Pakistan, Egypt and Kenya into debt-service crises?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if Asian central banks exhaust reserves defending currencies against the dollar?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if property-sector stress drives a krona sell-off feeding back into CRE?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if Basel III output-floor rules raise capital on CRE and curb bank lending?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if a global sovereign-stress episode sends the dollar surging and tightens global conditions?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if a US term-premium spike widens dollar-denominated sovereign spreads globally?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if the Brazilian real depreciates more than 30% in a disorderly currency rout?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if a commodity and risk-off shock drives a sharp Chilean peso sell-off?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if multiple EM central banks exhaust FX reserves defending currencies in a dollar surge?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if several emerging markets fall below FX-reserve adequacy thresholds?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if diverging ECB and BoE policy paths spike EUR/GBP volatility and complicate corporate hedging?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if heavy BoK FX intervention draws market focus on reserve adequacy and accelerates outflows?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if offshore rupee NDF pricing dislocates from onshore spot during a market stress episode?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if a sharp risk-off forces MAS to defend the SGD exchange-rate band, draining reserves?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if speculators mount a sustained attack on the Hong Kong dollar peg?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if heavy rupiah defense rapidly depletes Indonesia's foreign-exchange reserves?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if the rupiah gaps past 19,000 per dollar in a sudden risk-off cascade?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if the ringgit falls 30% in a regional sudden stop, reviving 1998-style stress?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if persistent ringgit defense erodes Malaysia's already thin foreign-exchange reserve cover?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if a regional dollar shortage forces Asian central banks to seek Fed swap lines?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if simultaneous stablecoin and money-fund liquidations tighten short-dollar funding globally?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if Japanese banks and insurers compete for dollars, gapping the USD/JPY basis to -100bp?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if regulatory window-dressing at year-end spikes EUR/USD and JPY/USD bases by 60-80bp?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if dealer balance-sheet constraints turn a modest dollar bid into a funding crisis?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if Turkey's lira carry trade collapses as orthodox policy reverses?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if an oil and real-yield spike ends India's rupee carry appeal?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if the DXY breaks 120 and forces Plaza-era-style intervention talks?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if a wave of EM dollar-bond maturities hits into shut primary markets?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if a prolonged oil slump sparks speculation that a GCC dollar peg could break?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if Turkish banks struggle to roll external dollar debt as the lira slides?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if US real yields jump above 2.5% and pull capital out of emerging markets?
8%▼ 1–3 years
What if disorderly dollar strength prompts coordinated G7 FX intervention talks?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if a dollar surge triggers sustained outflows from EM hard- and local-currency bond funds?
8%▼ 6–18 months
What if several large reserve holders rebalance away from the dollar within a single quarter?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if a risk-off shock drives 10-year Treasury yields down 100 basis points?
7%▲ 0–6 months
What if a terms-of-trade collapse drives the euro into a disorderly selloff toward 0.92?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if euro-area stress drives a safe-haven EUR/CHF slide toward 0.90?
7%▲ 0–6 months
What if a safe-haven SGD overshoot hurts Singapore export competitiveness and forces MAS to re-center?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if surging USD funding costs squeeze EM commodity importers and constrain physical flows?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if a currency dislocation defaults a counterparty on a large FX-forward book?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if a run on a globally-used dollar stablecoin forces reserve sales that lift US bill yields?
7%▲ 0–6 months
What if a global dash-for-cash collapses dollar liquidity and spikes the FRA-OIS spread above 75bp?
7%▲ 0–6 months
What if an acute offshore dollar shortage forces the Fed to reopen swap lines at full size?
7%▲ 0–6 months
What if Korean banks face a dollar FX-swap rollover squeeze?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if reserve drawdowns trigger a self-reinforcing EM currency-and-reserve spiral?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if capital outflows push the HKD to the weak side of its band?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if one-sided high-carry positioning flushes violently on a risk-off catalyst?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if Egypt faces an acute dollar shortage forcing another sharp devaluation?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if FX liquidity collapses in Nigeria, widening the gap between official and parallel naira rates?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if Pakistan's reserves fall to a few weeks of imports and force sharp rupee devaluation?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if Argentina's dollar shortage spiral forces renewed FX controls and peso devaluation?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if the dollar surges on a risk-off growth scare even as the US economy weakens?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if foreign investors exit EM local bonds and currencies simultaneously as the dollar surges?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if a dollar-and-yuan shock drags KRW, TWD, THB and INR lower together?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if a euro-area funding squeeze drags Czech, Polish and Hungarian currencies weaker together?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if an oil-price spike forces EM importers to buy dollars while petrostates hold back recycling?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if sustained low oil drains petrostate reserves and pressures dollar pegs from Nigeria to the GCC?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if a single risk-off catalyst simultaneously blows out currency bases and unwinds carry trades?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if crowded foreign carry into Brazil's high real rates reverses abruptly on a fiscal headline?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if the RBI's managed low-vol rupee regime breaks under an oil-and-dollar shock?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if the Mexican peso 'super-peso' carry darling reverses sharply on US recession fears?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if a dollar squeeze pushes global banks toward breaching dollar liquidity-coverage thresholds?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if several EM central banks burn reserves defending currencies and then capitulate to sharp devaluations?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if a dollar-rate and TWD move squeeze Taiwan life insurers into forced overseas-bond sales?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if a broad EM selloff marks down the emerging-market debt insurers reached for yield?
6%▲ 3–10 years
What if a major member quits the EU and fractures the euro?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if a risk-off shock sparks a global dollar scramble and blows out cross-currency basis?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if dollar-funding stress during sovereign turmoil blows out cross-currency basis?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if heavy Bank Indonesia FX intervention drains reserves and stoking further rupiah depreciation?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Malaysian ringgit slides to its weakest since the Asian financial crisis?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if an unfunded UK fiscal package triggers a simultaneous gilt and sterling rout?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if a fiscal or political shock triggers a sterling flash-crash and forces BoE intervention?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if aggressive MAS FX operations to hold the SGD band briefly draw scrutiny on reserve adequacy?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if the SGD/USD cross-currency basis blows out in a global dollar squeeze, straining Singapore banks?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hong Kong's aggregate balance drains to levels that leave interbank liquidity razor-thin?
6%▲ 3–10 years
What if markets start doubting the long-run viability of the Hong Kong dollar peg?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if a bank's biggest FX-prime client defaults during a currency dislocation?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if a bank's largest counterparty defaults just as a funding squeeze prevents hedging?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if a cross-currency-basis blowout defaults counterparties running levered basis trades?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if an EM currency collapse defaults counterparties with large non-deliverable-forward positions?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if a counterparty short FX volatility defaults in a currency crisis?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if a safe-haven surge defaults counterparties running crowded FX carry trades?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if a bank FX-options desk short volatility takes an outsized loss in a currency crisis?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if overseas basis funds default as cross-currency funding tightens and amplify a Treasury selloff?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if stigma prevents banks from drawing on Fed swap lines, leaving them dollar-short?
6%▲ 6–18 months
What if Swiss banks' large dollar books drive the CHF/USD cross-currency basis sharply negative?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if $80 trillion in hidden FX-swap dollar debt triggers a rollover squeeze?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if dollar, euro and yen funding all tighten at once for global banks?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if counterparty fears freeze the offshore eurodollar interbank market overnight?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if Taiwanese life insurers scramble for dollar hedges and blow out the TWD basis?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if Singapore banks face dollar-funding tightness as the SGD basis widens?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if HIBOR spikes and capital outflows test Hong Kong's dollar peg?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if US wholesale funding tightness strains Canadian banks as the dollar basis widens?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if Swedish and Norwegian banks face rollover stress as cross-currency bases widen?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if geopolitics narrows the Fed's swap-line network and leaves some economies without a backstop?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if heavy use of the Fed's FIMA repo signals an acute global dollar shortage?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if a collateral scramble spikes SOFR far above the Fed's target range?
6%▲ 6–18 months
What if QT pushes bank reserves low enough to trigger repo spikes and funding scares?
6%▲ 6–18 months
What if a frontier economy exhausts reserves and suspends debt service like Sri Lanka in 2022?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if a confidence shock to offshore dollar stablecoins tightens EM dollar liquidity?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if global banks pull back dollar trade-finance lines and choke EM import financing?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if the cross-currency basis inverts across tenors signaling a dollar squeeze?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if FX-collateralized repo markets seize as haircuts jump on non-dollar collateral?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if one peg break triggers a 1997-style Asian currency cascade?
6%▲ 6–18 months
What if an abrupt Fed repricing triggers a 2013-style taper tantrum hitting the fragile five?
6%▲ 6–18 months
What if a surprise yuan devaluation reprises the August 2015 deflationary shock?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if a strong dollar and rising yields reprise the 2018 EM dollar-debt squeeze?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if a risk-off shock hitting quarter-end reporting dates spikes dollar-funding rates sharply?
6%▲ 6–18 months
What if FRA-OIS, cross-currency bases and FX-swap rates all spike together confirming a dollar squeeze?
6%▲ 6–18 months
What if South Africa's twin deficits leave the rand acutely exposed when carry appetite turns?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if standing Fed swap-line sizes prove too small for the scale of offshore dollar obligations?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if dealers cut FX-swap market-making in a volatility spike and bases blow out?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if stress-triggered money-market fund gates choke short-term dollar funding for non-US borrowers?
6%▲ 6–18 months
What if the offshore eurodollar credit system contracts and tightens global dollar liquidity?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if domestic repo and offshore FX-swap markets seize at the same time?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if FX-hedging costs become prohibitive for Japanese life insurers' vast foreign-bond books?
5%▲ 0–6 months
What if a sharp safe-haven dollar surge crushes carry trades and EM positions?
5%▲ 0–6 months
What if foreign banks tap Fed swap lines heavily as dollar funding dries up offshore?
5%▲ 0–6 months
What if a sharp oil-price drop sends the Colombian peso plunging?
5%▲ 0–6 months
What if a CNH liquidity squeeze spikes offshore yuan funding costs in Hong Kong?
5%▲ 0–6 months
What if a systemic counterparty failure freezes dollar interbank markets overnight?