What if Copper and iron-ore relief rally on China stimulus and restocking?
Front-loaded China stimulus and a destocking-to-restocking turn lift base-metals demand, sparking a copper and iron-ore relief rally; the China-demand impulse re-rates miners and commodity-exporter assets.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Front-loaded China stimulus and a destocking-to-restocking turn lift base-metals demand, sparking a copper and iron-ore relief rally; the China-demand impulse re-rates miners and commodity-exporter assets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▲ · China stimulus ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.