What if drought across the Andean copper belt cuts global copper and lithium supply?
Severe drought across the Chilean and Andean copper belt cuts mine water supply and output, tightening global copper and lithium supply in a climate-to-metals channel the IEA flags.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Severe drought across the Chilean and Andean copper belt cuts mine water supply and output, tightening global copper and lithium supply in a climate-to-metals channel the IEA flags. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Copper ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.