What if drought across the Andean copper belt cuts global copper and lithium supply?
Severe drought across the Chilean and Andean copper belt cuts mine water supply and output, tightening global copper and lithium supply in a climate-to-metals channel the IEA flags.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Severe drought across the Chilean and Andean copper belt cuts mine water supply and output, tightening global copper and lithium supply in a climate-to-metals channel the IEA flags. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Copper ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.07–+0.76% · other way -1.11% (n=12) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.02–+0.78% · other way +2.22% (n=12) |
| 3 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.12–+0.79% · other way -0.49% (n=12) |
| 4 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.95–+0.18% · other way -0.27% (n=12) |
| 5 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.15–-0.01% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 6 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.25–+0.74% · other way +4.9% (n=12) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.14–-0.05% · other way +1.7% (n=12) |
| 8 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.15–+4.86% · other way +5.1% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.9% ↺ fades | 65% | 39 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.09 | · |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 53% | 39 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | LONG | +4.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 53% | 39 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 42% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 45% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.2% | 42% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 45% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -1.9% | 50% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 50% | 39 | 0.00 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 50% | 39 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 50% | 39 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +2bp | 48% | 40 | 0.00 | · |