What if a cluster of strikes at Chilean and Peruvian copper mines disrupts output and spikes prices?
A cluster of strikes and community blockades at major Chilean and Peruvian copper mines disrupts output, tightening supply and spiking prices, a labor-and-social supply-disruption scenario.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A cluster of strikes and community blockades at major Chilean and Peruvian copper mines disrupts output, tightening supply and spiking prices, a labor-and-social supply-disruption scenario. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Labor shortage ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +2.5% hist -0.61–+7.06% · other way -9.61% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.63–-0.12% · other way +1.18% (n=11) |
| 3 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -4.46–+1.78% · other way +6.99% (n=11) |
| 4 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -2.38–+0.73% · other way -0.86% (n=11) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.37–+0.25% · other way +2.97% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.42–+0.62% · other way +1.76% (n=11) |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.51–+0.36% · other way +0.44% (n=11) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.25–+3.39% · other way +18.52% (n=11) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.4–+0.45% · other way +1.1% (n=11) |
| 10 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.85–+0.24% · other way +8.19% (n=11) |
| 11 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.22–+2.65% · other way -3.39% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.07–+1.11% · other way +6.77% (n=8) |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.5–+0.44% · other way +5.43% (n=12) |
| 14 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.5–+3.52% · other way +1.17% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.2% · 5d +8.5% | 70% | 29 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.0% | 69% | 27 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -0.5% | 70% | 34 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.5% | 65% | 28 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 64% | 27 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -2.2% | 62% | 28 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 27 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 25 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 57% | 27 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -4.0% | 57% | 22 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 57% | 26 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.1% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 32 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +5bp | 54% | 40 | 0.09 | · |