What if Cost-push margin recession: input costs outrun pricing power?
Rising input and wage costs outrun firms' ability to raise prices, compressing margins into an earnings recession that drags equities even as GDP holds.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Rising input and wage costs outrun firms' ability to raise prices, compressing margins into an earnings recession that drags equities even as GDP holds. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.