What if Crossover outflow wave dumps EM local debt back to dedicated funds?
Tourist crossover money exits EM local markets fast in a risk-off turn, overwhelming dedicated EM funds and forcing wider bid-offer and sharper FX depreciation.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Tourist crossover money exits EM local markets fast in a risk-off turn, overwhelming dedicated EM funds and forcing wider bid-offer and sharper FX depreciation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.