What if Data-center oversupply air-pocket de-rates digital-infra REITs?
A wave of speculative data-center construction collides with an AI-capex pause, leaving vacancy and pricing pressure; the oversupply air-pocket de-rates digital-infrastructure REITs that had priced in endless demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A wave of speculative data-center construction collides with an AI-capex pause, leaving vacancy and pricing pressure; the oversupply air-pocket de-rates digital-infrastructure REITs that had priced in endless demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.29–+0.32% · other way +9.53% (n=11) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.67–+0.35% · other way +2.12% (n=10) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.24–+0.49% · other way -0.28% (n=11) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.35–-0.03% · other way +2.1% (n=11) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -8.68–+0.93% · other way -9.37% (n=9) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.79–+1.13% · other way +19.64% (n=11) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -10.16–+1.54% · other way +3.86% (n=9) |
| 9 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.89–+0.64% · other way +1.43% (n=11) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.48–+0.0% · other way +0.68% (n=11) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.35–-0.04% · other way -1.25% (n=11) |
| 12 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.94–+0.21% · other way +1.92% (n=11) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.13–+2.6% · other way +0.75% (n=11) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.81–+6.2% · other way -5.01% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -5.3% | 77% | 27 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.3% · 5d -5.3% | 73% | 28 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.7% | 71% | 33 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 67% | 33 | 0.28 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.5% · 5d +0.2% | 62% | 34 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.3% | 62% | 26 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.3% | 65% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -3.4% | 65% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.3% | 62% | 30 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.9% | 60% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 33 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.9% | 59% | 33 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |