What if surging power costs render some data-center real estate uneconomic?
Surging power prices and grid limits render some data-center real estate uneconomic, impairing the loans financing AI-era buildout.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Surging power prices and grid limits render some data-center real estate uneconomic, impairing the loans financing AI-era buildout. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · AI capex ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.0–-0.22% · other way +4.18% (n=11) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.92–+0.65% · other way +3.19% (n=11) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.41–+2.0% · other way -4.72% (n=11) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.54–-0.2% · other way +19.39% (n=11) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.55–+0.22% · other way +1.2% (n=11) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -6.53–+0.87% · other way -13.88% (n=8) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.45–+0.05% · other way -0.59% (n=11) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.22–+6.43% · other way -8.23% (n=11) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.39–+0.03% · other way +0.21% (n=11) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -6.57–+2.26% · other way +3.25% (n=8) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.83–+0.6% · other way +6.51% (n=9) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.9–+0.19% · other way +0.06% (n=12) |
| 14 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.75–+0.12% · other way -1.24% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -7.4% | 74% | 23 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.1% | 70% | 27 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.3% | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.2% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -1bp | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -3.4% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.8% · 5d +1.4% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.9% · 5d -3.8% | 58% | 24 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -3.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.5% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -3.3% | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |