What if AI demand stalls and leaves data centers overbuilt?
If AI demand stalls and hyperscalers cancel leases, overbuilt data-center REITs face stranded-asset writedowns and the capex bellwethers (NVDA, AVGO, Micron) lead lower as the build-out thesis cracks. Rhymes with the Jan-2025 DeepSeek selloff that briefly torched AI-capex names, and the 2000-01 telecom dark-fiber glut. Forward angle: power-purchase and lease economics are the tell — watch hyperscaler capex guidance; the REIT/stranded-power channel is the novel leg vs. a pure semi cycle.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. AI demand stalls, hyperscalers cancel leases, and overbuilt data-center REITs face stranded-asset writedowns and falling power-purchase values. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Growth surprise ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.