What if Datacenter-tied PPAs let utilities pre-fund generation buildout?
Long-dated hyperscaler power-purchase agreements de-risk utility capex, letting regulated names finance new gas and nuclear capacity against contracted load; XLU constituents with datacenter pipelines outperform.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Long-dated hyperscaler power-purchase agreements de-risk utility capex, letting regulated names finance new gas and nuclear capacity against contracted load; XLU constituents with datacenter pipelines outperform. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -2.85–+4.58% · other way -5.62% (n=5) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -4.78–+9.07% · other way +14.03% (n=5) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.3–+6.56% · other way -5.04% (n=5) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.02–+0.65% · other way -1.08% (n=6) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.01–+4.15% · other way -0.58% (n=5) |
| 7 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.6–+0.62% · other way -3.3% (n=5) |
| 8 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.69–+0.36% · other way -2.76% (n=5) |
| 9 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.38–-0.08% · other way +1.08% (n=12) |
| 10 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.23–+1.54% · other way -3.73% (n=5) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -5.8–+8.07% · other way +2.36% (n=5) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -6.57–+1.31% · other way +16.37% (n=6) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.11–+0.25% · other way +0.33% (n=5) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.32–+1.3% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 21 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +6.8% · 5d +1.7% | 76% | 16 | 0.50 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.9% · 5d -2.9% ↺ fades | 70% | 11 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -4.5% | 70% | 20 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +5.9% · 5d +1.8% | 62% | 18 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 63% | 20 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 21 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +11.6% · 5d +0.8% | 60% | 17 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +21.9% · 5d +6.1% | 60% | 8 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.0% | 59% | 20 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.5% | 59% | 12 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.0% | 57% | 18 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 18 | 0.14 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 21 | 0.11 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +8.3% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 11 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |