What if Debasement regime: real assets bid as DM real yields go negative?
Central banks cap nominal yields below inflation to ease debt burdens; deeply negative real yields drive capital into gold, bitcoin and hard assets and away from cash bonds.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Central banks cap nominal yields below inflation to ease debt burdens; deeply negative real yields drive capital into gold, bitcoin and hard assets and away from cash bonds. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▲ · Gold ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Real yields ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +3.0% hist +0.21–+3.65% · other way -3.44% (n=10) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.0% hist -0.42–+1.47% · other way +2.43% (n=9) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.7% hist -0.04–+2.33% · other way -5.52% (n=7) |
| 4 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.2–+2.04% · other way +16.76% (n=2) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -1.94–+1.64% · other way -1.22% (n=2) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.33–+3.59% · other way -1.47% (n=2) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.36–+0.33% · other way +0.79% (n=10) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.36–+0.42% · other way -1.16% (n=8) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.11–+0.25% · other way -1.17% (n=10) |
| 11 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.46–+0.34% · other way -1.06% (n=8) |
| 12 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.09–+1.3% · other way +1.31% (n=8) |
| 13 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.1–+0.21% · other way +0.47% (n=8) |
| 14 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.38–+0.38% · other way -0.53% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 31 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.0% | 60% | 39 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 29 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 55% | 29 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +2.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.10 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.5% | 55% | 29 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 29 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +4bp | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 29 | 0.08 | · |
| HOOD HOOD | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.5% | 52% | 21 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +4bp | 53% | 38 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 52% | 25 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 52% | 23 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 43% | 30 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |