What if a deepfake campaign sparks a bank run?
A deepfake-driven run hits crypto rails first - ETH and BTC sell on stablecoin/exchange-stress fears, with HY credit and financials confirming the contagion read. Rhymes with the Mar-2023 SVB/USDC depeg weekend, when a 36-hour confidence shock briefly broke a stablecoin and bid safe havens before backstops reversed it. Forward angle: post-2023, real-time deposit flight via apps makes runs faster but official liquidity facilities are also faster, so the half-life is short - trade the gap, not the trend.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A deepfake disinformation campaign triggers a bank run or market crash. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Crypto confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.