What if Disinflationary boom: supply expands faster than demand, margins widen?
Capacity additions and supply normalization outpace robust demand, producing a disinflationary boom where output rises, prices ease and corporate margins widen.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Capacity additions and supply normalization outpace robust demand, producing a disinflationary boom where output rises, prices ease and corporate margins widen. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Growth surprise ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -4.24–+14.59% · other way -2.57% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.15–+0.71% · other way +0.72% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% hist -2.53–+1.67% · other way +4.67% (n=5) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.51–+2.38% · other way -2.25% (n=5) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.16–+0.91% · other way +8.54% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.23–+3.72% · other way +2.64% (n=7) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.09–+1.09% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.09–+0.4% · other way +0.78% (n=12) |
| 10 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.49–+0.24% · other way +1.06% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.79–+12.5% · other way -9.52% (n=3) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.35–+1.33% · other way +0.42% (n=12) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.09–+0.32% · other way -0.68% (n=12) |
| 14 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.42–+0.36% · other way -2.21% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 72% | 38 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.1% | 64% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 65% | 38 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +12.7% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 62% | 39 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -2.9% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -3.3% | 60% | 38 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +4bp | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.6% · 5d +2.2% | 56% | 37 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |