What if Dollar wrecking-ball deflation: surging DXY tightens global conditions?
A surging dollar drains global liquidity and exports deflation to the rest of the world while straining dollar borrowers, a disinflationary but risk-negative force.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A surging dollar drains global liquidity and exports deflation to the rest of the world while straining dollar borrowers, a disinflationary but risk-negative force. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Global growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.2% hist -2.53–-0.93% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.8% hist -5.13–+0.97% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.0–-0.44% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 4 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.27–+0.02% · other way -0.25% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% hist -9.67–+1.6% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 6 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.8–-0.45% · other way -0.09% (n=12) |
| 7 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.45–+0.86% · other way +0.7% (n=12) |
| 8 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.72–-0.4% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 9 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.01–+0.37% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -8.97–+2.23% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
| 12 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.62–-0.35% · other way -0.62% (n=12) |
| 13 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.83–-0.12% · other way -0.81% (n=12) |
| 14 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.43–-0.25% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.3% | 76% | 38 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.8% · 5d -5.9% | 69% | 36 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.6% · 5d -5.4% | 64% | 36 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -3.0% | 59% | 37 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.2% | 58% | 38 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 55% | 38 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +2bp | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +1.4% | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +-0.0% | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |