What if DRC cobalt export ban tightens the battery chain?
Kinshasa extends and deepens its cobalt export quota to lift prices, squeezing EV and electronics makers reliant on Congolese hydroxide supply.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Kinshasa extends and deepens its cobalt export quota to lift prices, squeezing EV and electronics makers reliant on Congolese hydroxide supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.79–+0.14% · other way -3.24% (n=11) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.15–+0.56% · other way -5.19% (n=11) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.29–+0.2% · other way -0.93% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.58–+0.35% · other way -5.24% (n=11) |
| 5 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.48–+0.92% · other way -4.33% (n=11) |
| 6 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.13–+5.76% · other way +28.5% (n=11) |
| 7 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.31–+0.7% · other way -0.98% (n=11) |
| 8 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.82–+0.2% · other way -1.39% (n=12) |
| 9 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.54–+4.21% · other way +17.42% (n=11) |
| 10 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -2.58–+1.05% · other way -8.1% (n=11) |
| 11 | Palladium XPDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -2.49–+1.03% · other way -8.86% (n=11) |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -0.65–+2.92% · other way +18.9% (n=12) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -0.73–+2.82% · other way +17.4% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -1.0% | 70% | 31 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -3.2% | 69% | 31 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.4% | 67% | 31 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -3.2% | 66% | 31 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.3% | 64% | 31 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -0.7% | 58% | 31 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.2% | 58% | 31 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +5.3% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 31 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.8% · 5d +0.2% | 56% | 31 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.3% | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 31 | 0.09 | · |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.0% | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +2bp | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d +1.4% ↺ fades | 52% | 33 | 0.04 | · |